49ers Free Agency Predictions
If I'm right, I'm a genius. If I'm wrong, who cares?
Editors Note: (Also, I’m the editor.) I wrote and scheduled this last week to go out on Wednesday, the first day of the official free agency season. What I FORGOT was that all the signings are leaked on Monday, making some of the predictions below look maybe not so thoughtful, as many of these have happened already. Such is life. I’ll try to remember next year.
The new season of the NFL officially starts tomorrow, March 15, which means that by the time you’re reading this a lot of free agents will have remarkably worked out complicated deals with new teams. My guess is that, per usual, the 49ers will not pounce on anyone immediately. (Whoops! They signed Javon Hargrave, the top free agent in the class! Great signing to pair with Bosa.) It’s not their style. (Apparently, yes it is.) But also, they don’t have a TON of available cash - they need to extend Nick Bosa and perhaps Brandon Aiyuk, and they are poised to lose a few key free agents. So, let’s first predict who they won’t re-sign and will lose in free agency.
OT Mike McGlinchey. I can’t see the 49ers being able to match what I expect to be sizable offers, and the team has largely acknowledged this, as has McGlinchey himself. GM John Lynch:
“Mike, the totality of his game, in the right tackle world — there are a couple elite ones, the Lane Johnsons of the world — he’s right behind them in my mind,” Lynch said. “So when you’ve got Trent (Williams), the way our team is comprised, that’s just a tough deal for us.
“So that stinks, but could he miss his market? Sure. And then would we be interested? Of course we would. But I don’t see that happening. I see him being a coveted player.”
My prediction is he signs with the Chicago Bears for something in the order of $13-15MM/year. (Let the record show I wrote this days ago, and he signed with the Broncos, not the Bears, for roughly this amount.) That’s a market the 49ers can’t play in with their other obligations. The reality is that McGlinchey is a great runblocker, mediocre pass blocker and commits critical penalties at the worst times. The team can’t allocate this kind of coin here. But they do need to find a new right tackle.
How do the 49ers replace him? There are a decent amount of long-in-the-tooth tackles getting cut due to salary issues. The team should use some of their draft picks on tackles, of course. But a few guys might take a reasonable 1-2 year deal to be on a team that can compete for a title. Names like Cameron Erving, Riley Reiff, Kelvin Beachum and Ja’Wuan James pop to me. I also think the team could hope to resign Daniel Brunskill and/or see if guys like Jaylon Moore or Nick Zakelj are ready to make the leap. Note: The team did resign OT Colton McKivitz which provides depth but hardly solves the issue overall.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB.
This is a foregone conclusion of course, but I’d NEVER put it past the team to yet again find a way to re-sign The Handsome One. However, even with Derek Carr going to the Saints, and Aaron Rodgers potentially going to the Jets, I think Jimmy still has a lot of options out there to be a starter. Now, he may be the starter with a rookie prospect behind him - but I see Jimmy with real options in Houston, Tampa Bay, Carolina or Las Vegas. (Vegas it is!)
How do the 49ers replace him? They really don’t, in the sense of trying to sign a starting QB. I’ve previously said I think Nate Sudfeld is the most logical QB to sign as a bridge for the healing Brock Purdy and/or Trey Lance. I’ll stick with that. (Ed note: The team signed Sam Darnold instead. Didn’t see that coming, but for the QB room, I can’t complain.)
Jimmie Ward, FS/NCB.
The slash in his position makes him a weird free agent. He’s 31, the safety market is oddly awful now in the NFL but that’s where he wants to play. The 49ers seem to like him more at Nickel Cornerback, but they really don’t have many safeties signed so he could do either if he comes back. My guess? The team re-signs Ward, as they value him more than anyone else.
Other re-signs? I’m going with Emmanuel Mosely, Jake Brendel and maybe Tashaun Gipson if he doesn’t retire. If the team can’t sign Brendel, they could look into the center market - names like Bradley Bozeman, Garrett Bradbury, Ethan Pocic or Justin Britt may prove tempting to Shanahan, who loves the center position. Note: The team re-signed Gipson to another team-friendly deal which means both starting safety positions are filled, with depth in the secondary a constant concern. Ward would still be a worthwhile signing at the right price.
Guys I think the team will lose and likely replace with names of guys I couldn’t predict OR use draft capital to replace?
Samson Ebukam - Edge rusher is a huge need, as always, but he’s likely to command a much higher salary than a guy who has never had more than five sacks in a season should get on this team. (NOTE: The team COULD make a splash by trying to sign someone like Yannick Ngakoue, but I’m assuming they still see promise in Drake Jackson and are going to be a bit more modest in free agency. Perhaps re-signing Charles Omenihu instead? Ed. note: They have re-signed Kevin Givens to go along with Javon Hargrave.)
Robbie Gould - This will hurt as he’s been a great asset. But he’s 40, could probably get a large last deal and the team can draft a kicker (sigh, I’m coming around to this) or sign a lot of other legs that can get the job done.
Azeez Al-Shahir - He’s been a starting LB often of late, and I suspect he’ll follow DeMeco Ryans to Houston for a contract he deserves, but the Niners cannot afford.
Tarvarious Moore - He’s incredibly fast and a great special teams player. The team re-signed him for a cheap 1-year deal last season but he could easily leverage his performance in 2022 into a big deal the team can’t afford.