Changing the fates of failing franchises
What struggling NFL team has the best chance for success?
It’s the time of year for NFL fans when there’s really nothing going on — on the field, anway. It’s the off-season but as we all know, the NFL is brilliant in filling those gaps with #content like free agency and the draft.
Depending on what kind of fan you are, that means it’s either the time for optimism or dread. For me, I’m a glass half full kind of fan - to the point that I truly don’t understand the fan who is constantly upset with every move a franchise makes, etc. They can tell you all about the failed draft picks but not enjoy the great ones. (These are the folks who are still mad at John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan for the Trey Lance draft debacle, but never balance that out with the Brock Purdy pick, who they generally credit to now departed Adam Peters for reasons I can’t quite figure out.)
Of course, as a fan of three teams that have either won titles in their sports or certainly competed mightily for them (see: 49ers, San Francisco) perhaps it’s easy for me to be more optimistic than others. There are many teams that haven’t had made the playoffs in some time.
There are 12 teams in the NFL that have missed the playoffs for at least the last two seasons. Eight of these have a streak of at least three seasons, with four teams exceeding that. Those four? The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have missed the last six postseasons. The Denver Broncos? The last eight. And your New York Jets have missed the last 13 years in the playoffs.
My goodness.
In some cases, I think there are teams at the TOP of this list I feel better about than some at the bottom. (For instance, I’d feel pretty comfortable saying that the Giants are going to continue this streak this year while perhaps some near the top might break their own streak.)
So, which teams here do I feel the most positive about? Let’s start from the top down.
And look, I’m sorry to all the Jets fans here but … I don’t think it’s changing. I know you’re all in this season, and it’s not JUST that I think going all-in on a 40-year old QB coming off an Achilles tear who also apparently considered running as Vice President with Robert Kennedy, Jr is a dicey proposition but … wait, yes, that’s it entirely. Also, I think being in a division with the Bills and Dolphins, regardless of their foibles, makes this a tough ask.
Speaking of smug, I don’t think Sean Payton has quite what it takes to turn the Broncos around this year, though getting rid of Mr. Unlimited is a nice start. Even if they do make a move in the draft for a QB, that means the fate of the team is in the hands of a rookie QB and not necessarily one of the top ones.
Broncos Country, Let’s Cry.
I won’t even pretend I think the Panthers are going to make the playoffs. They can KEEP POUNDING all they want, it’s gonna be awhile.
But the Falcons? I mean, assuming they find some defense in the draft here, I honestly think it will be a disappointment if they do not make the playoffs. Their offense - assuming another older vaccine-hating QB recovers from his own Achilles tear - looks loaded. Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney are a truly solid offensive package. And they play in the NFC South, where they only have to worry about the aforementioned Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers. If they don’t make the playoffs, there’s gonna be some questions.
I’m not as optimistic about the Commanders - and I hope that they are considering a name change yet again - but the Colts and Bears are, I think, very likely to also make a leap.
There is a lot of talk that any rookie QB with the Vikings will be in the best shape ever, but if Caleb Williams gets to run an offense with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and maybe rookie Rome Odunze, plus D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet? Behind a solid offensive line and an emerging defense? That’s a GREAT start to a career, and rivals the situation Cousins is walking into in Atlanta.
The Colts similarly seem poised to emerge if QB Anthony Richardson can stay healthy and improve with his offense.
There are teams that seem destined for failure. Frankly, the idea of the Bears having a legitmate franchise QB is so atypical it’s hard to envision how exactly this pans out. But it does look like the future. And I’m pretty excited about it.