Checking in on our 49ers
There is cause for alarm, but let's be realistic about things
The NFL hit free agency a few weeks ago, and as I’d predicted, the 49ers were fairly quiet in acquisitions. In fact, they were even more quiet than I’d thought, and that included not keeping many players who signed with other teams.
But let’s take a step back. Because it’s not crazy for fans of a team to freak out when a team loses multiple defensive linemen, multiple cornerbacks, a running back, a safety, edge rushers, etc., as well as key offensive linemen at both tackle and guard.
I’m talking, of course, about the Philadelphia Eagles.
So why are Eagles fans and the national media not crying foul? Two main reasons - they just won the Super Bowl (this is…big) and also, they’ve drafted so well in the past few years that they essentially already have replacements for almost all these players.
Think back two years ago, to the 2023 draft. The Niners didn’t have their first or second round picks, lost in the Trey Lance and Christian McCaffrey trades. (One of those worked out better than the other, spoiler alert.) With their two third round picks, they took Ji’Ayir Brown, slated to be a starting safety this year and kicker Jake Moody. I was predictably upset about the Moody pick, calling it ‘irresponsible’ and ‘arrogant.’
Sometimes, I hate being correct.
In the meantime, the Eagles took Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round, two guys who will be bedrocks for the team for quite some time and make the losses of Josh Sweat and Milton Williams much easier to swallow.
So let’s refocus on the 49ers.
As the team looks to sign Brock Purdy, Fred Warner and George Kittle to new contracts, they needed to shed some contracts - not just for the “cap” but for actual dollars being spent. In all honesty, while they lost a lot of names - including guys who were presumptive starters - as a fan, the only two names that hurt went to Denver in Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufunga. And they both signed contracts the Niners really couldn’t match (though it seems that in Greenlaw’s case, they tried to.) When teams are giving Aaron Banks $77MM, it’s tough to “keep” your guys. (And like all contracts, Banks isn’t guaranteed close to that - but what he is going to get is more than he should and more than the Niners should have allocated to him.) Look at this:
So, there’s that.
If the season started today, this would be the starting lineup.
This also assumes Brandon Aiyuk can play week one - if not, he’s replaced by Demarcus Robinson. This is not a championship roster.
The team needs a few starters on the defensive line, linebacker and future starters on the offensive line and maybe at wide receiver. (Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings may well be sufficient, but another real weapon wouldn’t hurt.)
The adage is that if you can get three starters out of a draft, you’ve done a great job. The 49ers need at least that. This is … a bit concerning, to say the least. They do play a last place schedule next season - but that only comes into play in three games, and at least one of those opponents (the Bears) looks to have made some real progress this off-season.
My prediction is that they use their first round pick on a defensive lineman, and then on Day 2 with those three picks they grab another DL/Edge player, an offensive lineman and either a linebacker or a wideout. Those are certainly the positions crying out for help.
Many 49ers fans are convinced the team is tanking, that the season is over, etc. It doesn’t have to be - but the management is really counting on hitting on another draft. Let’s hope they’re right.