This weekend, the 49ers came roaring back against the Detroit Lions to win the NFC Championship and advance to the Super Bowl. As a diehard 49er fans, that game and the Divisional Round - which also featured a late comeback by the 49ers - were not particularly heart healthy, but also fantastic experiences as a fan.
But the fact that the 49ers need to rally a comeback in order to win brought up a discussion topic that any 49er fan has heard, on repeat:
Before the team came back against the Packers in the NFC Divisional Round, Kyle Shanahan was 0-30 when being down by seven or more points in the 4th quarter.
0-30! Not great. But … how did this record happen? Let’s break it down.
2017
This was the team Kyle Shanahan inherited, plus his first draft class which included George Kittle and almost nobody else of note, though QB C.J. Beathard got way, way too many starts. The team went 6-10, starting out 0-9. Lost two OT games. Opponents who went to the playoffs denoted with *
Game 1 vs Panthers, down 20, lost by 20.
Game 3 vs Rams*, down 14, lost by 2, on a failed 2-pt conversion
Game 5 vs Colts, down 10, scored 17, Colts scored 7, lost in OT
Game 7 vs Cowboys, down 30, blown out to sea
Game 8 vs Eagles*, down 20, blown out to sea
Game 11 to Seahawks, down 8, gave up 10, scored 7, lost by 11. Team was throwing to someone named Louis Murphy to let you know how deep the squad was.
2018
Despite the optimism of finishing the prior season 6-1 with QB Jimmy Garropolo, that faded quickly when he got hurt in the 3rd game of the season. Team still very, very bad. Team went 4-12, mostly unable to do much after Jimmy G gets hurt in the third game of the season (see below).
Game 1 vs Vikings, team down by 11, scored 3 and didn’t give up any points. Lost by 8.
Game 3 vs Chiefs*. Down 11. Traded field goals, lost by 11. Jimmy G tears his ACL.
Game 5 vs Cardinals. Down by 8. Each team scores 2 TD (Niners miss both 2-pt attempts), 49ers lose by ten. CJ Beathard as QB.
Game 7 vs Rams*. Down by 22. Lost by 29. Boatraced.
Game 12 vs Tampa. Down by 11. Lost by 18. Nick Mullens now QB.
Game 13 vs Seattle*. Down 17. Lost by 27 including 98-yd pick six.
Game 17 vs Rams*. Down by 28, lost by 16.
2019
The third year, everyone is starting to buy into the system and the team drafts Nick Bosa to finally get a game wrecking pass rush. Only one game qualifies here, which if you read below is actually nothing to be ashamed of. The team goes all the way to the Super Bowl, and has a decent lead before Patrick Mahomes begins his career arc of utter soul destruction.
Week 10 – first loss of the season, in OT to the Seahawks. Were down 11 going into 4th quarter, tied it up, went to OT. Seattle hit GW field goal with time expiring.
2020
Went 6-10. Nick Bosa tears his ACL in Week 2, the s. ame game had injuries to Jimmy G and starting RB Raheem Mostert. Jimmy starts six games, Nick Mullens starts ten.
Week 5. Down by 20 to Miami. CJ Beathard at QB. Lost by 26.
Week 8. Down by 20 to Seattle. Lose by 10. Nick Mullens now in at QB.
Week 9. Down by 28 to Green Bay. Lose by 17. Nick Mullens still in at QB.
Week 10. Down by 7 to New Orleans. Lose by 14.
Week 13. Down by 10 to Bills. Lose by 10 after trading TDs. Yes, still Nick Mullens.
Week 14. Down by 15 to WFT. Lose by 8. It’s still Mullens, guys.
2021
The team goes 10-7, but fight and make it all the way to the NFCC, losing to the eventual champion Rams after Jaquiski Tartt inexplicably drops a game winning interception. Jimmy G is healthy.
Week 4 vs Seahawks. Down by 8, lose by 7. Trey Lance (rookie) comes in for Jimmy and throws a TD to Deebo, team doesn’t convert onsides kick.
Week 7 vs Colts. Down by 8, lose by 12. Jimmy throws a TD (two-pt try failed), but Defense gives up 10.
Week 9 vs Cardinals*. Down by 17, lose by 14.
Week 13 vs Seahawks. Down by 7, lose by 7. No scoring by either team in Q4.
2022
Team goes 13—4 and loses in the NFCC (again) losing to the Eagles after injuries to quite literally every QB on the roster.
Week 6 vs Falcons. Down by 14, lose by 14. No scoring by either team in Q4. Season starter Trey Lance is out for season, we’re back to Jimmy G.
Week 7 vs Chiefs*. Down by 12, lose by 21.
Week 21 vs Eagles*. Down by 21, lose by 24. They literally have nobody to play QB. This is the first playoff game that qualifies for this category, by the way.
2023
Team goes 12-5, and wins the NFCC against the Lions (see below). Super Bowl? TBD.
Week 8 vs Vikings. Down by 8, lose by 5. Just get beat, could have won the game several times.
Week 9 vs Bengals. Down by 7, lose by 14. Joe Burrow at his healthiest and team just gets beat.
Week 16 vs Ravens*. Down by 21, lose by 18. Absolutely trounced by Ravens, best defense in the league.
But then!
Week 20, Divisional Round vs Packers. Down 7, WIN by 3.
Week 21, NFCC vs Lions. Down 17 at the half, tied game by Q4, win by 3, were up by 10 before junk time
.It’s easy for a post like this to be all about excuses, and hey – maybe so. But the 2017-2018 teams were truly bad. They went 10-22, and 13 of those 22 losses they were down going into Q4. They were very bad and didn’t come back. In 2019, when they had an actual answer at QB with Jimmy G, it only happened once and that team went into OT after going into Q4 being down 11. In 2020, they lost Jimmy G to injury and six more of those losses happened with CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens at QB.
Another way of looking at this is that Kyle Shanahan is 0-19 with CJ Beathard, Brian Hoyer or Nick Mullens at QB when down in the fourth quarter. I would posit that this is not a coaching issue.
Being 0-11 going into the fourth quarter with an answer at QB is bad, but it’s not the stat that would hang over a coaches head.
There were three such losses this year, with, of course, Brock Purdy at QB. Two of those losses against the Bengals and Ravens were against top defenses (especially Baltimore) and elite QB play that created big leads, but regardless – the team just got beat in those. I honestly can’t really remember the Vikings game except I did feel like the Niners should have – or at least, could have – won that game, so that’s not ideal. But Purdy has also led real comebacks this year - including one against the Browns (they weren’t down by 7, so it’s not included here) that failed when K Jake Moody whiffed on a game winning field goal.
This is a VERY long way of stating – this statistic sounds pretty horrible. 0-30 when being down by a touchdown or more? KYLE CAN’T COME BACK. But then, look at his personnel. Realize that he had truly horrible skill position players.
Also, what’s Andy Reid’s record in these kind of games? Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, etc. Do you know? I sure don’t. I would bet two things – they’ve won a few more of those games than Shanahan has, and their records in those games are really bad anyway. It’s hard to come back in the NFL. Even harder when you’re down by at least a touchdown. But don’t take my word on this, let’s look at data.
The above data is from Pro Football Reference’s Win Probability Calculator. It should be pretty clear from the data that if you start the fourth quarter down by a touchdown, the odds are VERY much against you no matter WHAT. If you’re down by more, it’s an incredibly tall task.
The most important stat here is that the vast majority of these games happened with terrible team and terrible quarterbacking. That seems at least as relevant as the coaching.
Essentially, getting a win in any of these scenarios is highly, HIGHLY unlikely. The record is bad, but it’s also expected. If Shanahan was beating the odds, his record would be 5-25. Is that “good?”
It’s just another way folks want to poke fun at Shanahan, and the 49ers. Let them keep doing it.