Friday Fretting

Hm. Are we sure we're not concerned?

Typically, this post here is just a collection of random thoughts. And that’s still what we’re doing here but I just had a Slack conversation with my man Heath about the Warriors and while none of these are NEW thoughts for me, I’m not sure I - or most Warriors fans - have really looked in the mirror about the state of the team.

Yes, I’m talking about the team that won the Championship just last year and made the Western Conference Semi-Finals this year. And I should add that I’ve been a Warriors fan since before Run TMC. There were many, many awful years. The last eight plus with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and others has been insane. It’s the best basketball dynasty of recent years.

But right now? I’m officially a bit concerned.

Steph Curry is still bonkers, a cheat code who teams simply cannot stop when he’s on, and he’s on a LOT. He’s 35 but he has at least a few more great years in him before he slows down.

So, what happens in those three years? And how does the team prepare for the years after that? Klay Thompson has been heroic in his return from brutal leg injuries - and while his statistics for the year and even the playoffs don’t look awful, anyone who watched saw how inconsistent he was, and just seemed to not be part of a LOT of plays for long stretches of time. He’s due $43,000,000 next year and is a free agent after that. The logical move would be to sign him to a longer deal, and spread that out, but … for how much? How long do you want to gamble that he’s still a Splash Brother?

(I should again state that I’m a devout Klaytheist, he’s one of the greatest shooters of all time and probably a top-50 all time NBA player. I love the guy. But … everybody slows down at some point.)

What about Dray? He’s owed like $27,500,000 next year as a player option, so he’s probably back? But … there’s been rumors the team might offer HIM another deal too. And on the court, he’s often CRITICAL to everything the Warriors do. He’s a year younger than Klay, but still … how long can he play like Draymond Green? Also? He punched Jordan Poole. That’s still not cool.

Around this uncertainty, the question is both who will be making those decisions and what those choices will be. Current GM Bob Myers is potentially leaving - or will certainly be offered a huge salary. He’s done an amazing job with team contracts, with signing or trading for exactly the right veteran (including, of course, Kevin Durant but also guys like Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Andrew Bogut and others.

But is signing veterans the right plan for the next three-plus years? Maybe … but who? And how are they going to pay for anyone really critical with those other salaries on the board, which includes the new Jordan Poole contract which kicks in this year and looks a BIT concerning given his 2022-23 season.

Oh, the draft, you say? Well, that’s kind of concerning too. Myers became the GM in April of 2012.

You can see just a smidge of orange at the bottom here. That’s Klay Thompson, drafted the year before Myers took the top job. Just two years prior was Steph Curry. Those three have rightfully been the core of this dynasty, and the team has filled in around then, usually with veterans because … look at that table.

Harrison Barnes is still a solid starter (with the Kings) but not a star, and certainly not a player teams build around. Kevon Looney is a great defender and a true menace on the boards. Poole still has a chance to be a real #2 option on a team, but is he going to be THE player on your team? That would be a TRUE leap from waht we’ve seen. Moses Moody looks promising. He’s one of three picks in the top half of the draft Myers has had since Barnes. The others are James Wiseman, who looks promising but is now a Detroit Piston, and Jonathan Kuminga who does not look promising at all. (Edited to say: Kuminga still has promise, this was unduly harsh. But he’s not shown anywhere near his true draft capital. Neither has Wiseman, though he produced more in woeful Detroit where he didn’t have many others to battle for minutes.)

Everyone misses in the draft, and where the Warriors have been picking makes it tough. But is there a ton of evidence in the last 10 years (which is, it should be said, a long time) that the Warriors can replenish this team via the draft? What happens after Curry, Thompson and Green hang up their shoes?

Right now, it’s impossible to say with confidence that the team is going to be really good in, say, three years. That’s the first time this has been the case in over ten years as far as I’m concerned.

It will be fascinating to see the plan here. Going for it again with veterans who are willing to sign for less is a plan. Drafting well and with a long-term plan is another, and they don’t have to be mutually exclusive actions. It’s going to take a lot of skill to facilitate it, whether it’s Bob Myers or someone else.