Getting Ahead of The Brock Drama

The noise won't go away, but it's only noise

For some reason, there’s nothing the national press likes more than talking about the San Francisco 49ers quarterback dilemma, whether it goes all the way back to the Joe Montana/Steve Young controversy, whether Colin Kaepernick was a legitimate quarterback, if Kirk Cousins was going to be traded for or re-signed, all the way through the Jimmy G/Trey Lance saga and now, with Brock Purdy - what to do about his impending contract?

This is absolute fuel for the Hot Take Fire, and the bad takes have already started (Brian Baldinger, who I generally respect, said he’d flip Purdy for Sam Darnold right now).

That’s one hot take. More will come.

So, let’s set a few things straight:

1. The 49ers ARE going to sign Purdy to an extension. After being quite literally the best bargain in the NFL, he’s finally eligible for such a contract this off-season, and the 49ers - both John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have said all the right things about Purdy being the long-term answer at the most important position in sports.

2. This is a good decision by the team. Has Purdy been perfect? No, but … who has? The teams misfortunes this year have not been due to bad play by Purdy, and while he has not miraculously overcome the losses of Christian McCaffery, Brandon Aiyuk for large portions of the season, and missed games/playing hurt by Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams (and other lesser offensive linemen), his general measurables have been on par with his prior two seasons.

3. He will be getting a market rate contract. This is where the hot takes start - people suggest he should - for the betterment of the team - take a “Baker/Geno” contract. Those two contracts are fairly different, but in both cases the quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith) signed for under market rate for a short duration. In theory this helps the team with the lower contract but also positions the player to sign another contract when it ends at a high value. These are not good proxies for Brock, who is much younger with much more success at his age than either of these guys who are both on their FOURTH NFL team, were relegated to backups before finding a path back to being a solid starter.

So, what is a “market rate contract” anyway? Here are the last few long-term deals for quarterbacks (non-rookie contracts):

It’s important to note that all of these contracts were signed before this or the prior season, and that’s the way we should gauge what Purdy should sign.

Let’s first just get this out of the way - I’m not going to go into the contracts of Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson as they were all signed a year prior and I am not arguing that Purdy is at their level (even though I have argued that Lamar isn’t really a great QB until he stops collapsing in the playoffs, and I stand by this).

Here are the most recent folks to get a new contract and their stats just before signing their new deals, and then Purdy just below them:

There’s a few pretty easy things to grasp from this data - first, Jordan Love got a huge deal with very, very little experience. But Purdy has the next least experience so I’ve included him here. (For a reference, Love signed a 4-year, $220,000,000 contract averaging $55m/year, with just over $100m guaranteed.)

Did folks freak out when Love got PAID? No. So why will they when Purdy does?

The only thing you can argue about Dak over Brock is duration, where I don’t think anyone could look at these stats and argue that Tua, Herbert or Trevor are clearly better than Brock. All of them have merits - and all three of them were first round draft picks, which adds to how folks think of them.

But this is the market. If Brock signs a deal similar to Love, people will think it’s crazy - but it’s the market price.

So that’s one side of things - it’s not your money, it’s not mine - and the 49ers have been adjusting their salary cap to prepare for this.

The other side is … if the naysayers were in charge and didn’t want to sign Brock, what are their solutions at quarterback? Yes, this year there were some very good rookie quarterbacks, but looking back to 2023 - would you immediately take Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud over Purdy? After 2023, many would say yes to Stroud - but he’s been much, much worse this season. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis are a hard no, thanks. A year prior, the highest ranked QB was Kenny Pickett. There are generally one or two solid starting QBs in any draft class, but no certainty the 49ers could get them. And in free agency, there is no one better than Purdy who would cost substantially less. That’s why it’s such an important question.

If you want to get rid of Brock, you could easily be stuck hanging your hopes on Will “Surrender Cobra” Levis.

Folks who suggest the team shouldn’t do whatever is needed to extend Brock to a long-term deal aren’t serious, whether or not they think they are.