How Bout Those Niners?
After a breakout day and a pending bye week, let's assess.
On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers - my favorite team in all of sports - absolutely rolled the rival Los Angeles Rams, in what amounted and felt like a coming out party. The 49ers entered this season as one of the favorites in the NFC, based on last season and their promise - which started to crumble after they started 0-2 and lost starting QB Trey Lance for the season in that second game.
That said, when Jimmy Garoppolo came in to become the starter, yet again, some wondered if in the short run he might be a better signal caller to take the team deep into the playoffs. Lance is still a complete unknown, which doesn’t seem great knowing next year will be his third in the NFL, but in the present day, Jimmy has started to really look the part yet again.
And, of course, they traded for Christian McCaffrey which on Sunday looked like they had unlocked a cheat code. CMC threw a TD pass to Brandon Aiyuk, ran in a TD and caught a TD from Jimmy on one of my favorite plays of the season thus far.
Look how McCaffrey hangs down at the bottom of the screen - the play is for him to be a dumpoff pass there if the receivers are covered - which they are. But because CMC is smart and elite, and somehow already has chemistry with Jimmy G, he starts moving to get open. And then he makes a leaping athletic catch in the endzone. Cheat code.
Note - as a rule, I’m trying to not use Twitter anymore, given the new ownership and their seeming business plan to make it as toxic as possible. That said, stuff like this is just easier to facilitate via Twitter.
Brandon Aiyuk looks to be rounding into shape as a traditional WR1, which ignores the fact that Deebo Samuel is the de facto WR1 on this team. A good problem to have. George Kittle, when he’s not being the best blocking tight end in the game, can make acrobatic catches and TDs like he did yesterday. And with CMC, the returning Eli Mitchell and Jeff Wilson, there’s quite a lot of weapons at coach Kyle Shanahan’s disposal.
And this doesn’t even talk about the defense, which stifled the Rams offense completely when it mattered. Nick Bosa finds a way to get to the QB seemingly every game. The secondary has tightened up nicely with Mooney Ward at cornerback and a lot more depth than it’s ever had. This team is loaded.
Let’s take a quick look backwards and think about what could have been.
Chicago - LOSS. This game was a slopfest and most folks keep saying that it was a complete tossup. Sure, but the team should have won against a clearly inferior team.
Seattle - WIN. This was the game where Lance got hurt, but the defense absolutely suffocated the Seahawks offense. The only Seattle score was on defense/special teams. That said, I wouldn’t expect the next matchup to be this easy.
Denver - LOSS. This game was a disaster (note - I saw none of it) and Jimmy looked completely out of sorts against a top defense. Having watched Denver - who seem to be on national TV a horrifying amount - there is no reason they should have lost this game.
Rams - WIN. This was a dominant performance, and one where it seemed like the team righted the ship.
Panthers - WIN. Another huge performance, and the team looked ready to tackle the rest of the league.
Falcons - LOSS. And not a particularly close one. Now, the Falcons are atop the suddenly awful NFC South, but this seemed shocking at the time and isn’t a good look for this team.
Chiefs - LOSS. It’s no great tragedy to lose to Kansas City, but they got absolutely humiliated in the second half and looked clearly inferior.
Rams - WIN. See above. Rinse. Repeat. SOSR (Same Old Sorry Rams). I don’t know why the Rams are so clearly outmatched by the 49ers, but they almost always are, save for the NFCC last year and Jaquiski Tartt not being able to hold onto an interception.
That’s a 4-4 record. The glass half-full look here would suggest the team could fairly easily be 6-2 or even 7-1, with losses to the Chiefs and maybe the Broncos. Of course, they could easily be 3-5 or worse with a loss to Seattle and splitting with the Rams.
So let’s look forward, and not backward.
Here is the remaining schedule after the bye:
Week 10: Chargers
Week 11: @ Cardinals
Week 12: Saints
Week 13: Dolphins
Week 14: Buccaneers
Week 15: @ Seahawks
Week 16: Commanders
Week 17: @ Raiders
Week 18: Cardinals
Now … if I’m being honest, this is a TREMENDOUS schedule for the 49ers. The Chargers and Dolphins are frisky, sure. The Cardinals always seem to have the 49ers number, but c’mon. And Seattle in Seattle is never fun. To me, if they come out of this at 9-8, that’s almost a worst case scenario. Tampa Bay is in freefall, the Saints aren’t much better and we don’t really have to spend much time talking about Las Vegas or Washington.
All of these teams can beat the 49ers - that’s football. But on paper, the team should, probably, go 6-3 or better here, and end up at least at 10-7. Again, had they played better thus far that record could be even more dominant. After that, the playoffs are where anything can happen.
Remember, they played on Sunday without Deebo Samuel, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Dre Greenlaw and Eli Mitchell. In theory, all of them should be reasonably healthy coming out of the bye. The team is 4-4, with a 4-2 record in the NFC and a 3-0 in the division. Somehow they made it out of this game without any serious injury, which seems like a first for this banged up squad. Health may very well be on the way.
There’s really no telling what this team is capable of, but right now, it feels very, very promising.
