How should an NFL team draft?
The fact that there are multiple ways to answer this makes it fascinating.
The NFL Draft is about two months away, and while a lot of the chatter is - as always - about where the top college quarterbacks will go, I think one of the more interesting questions is how teams should approach the draft.
Interestingly, the NFL and NBA handle free agency and the draft in opposite ways - the NBA does the draft first, then free agency happens. In the NFL, teams spend a few months signing veterans and then the rookie draft happens (and any remaining unsigned free agents, of course, can still be signed). Of course, NBA teams have 12 players, only five on the court at any time, where as NFL teams have a 53-man roster. The NFL structure probably favors veterans but it creates a weird incentive - do I sign this expensive veteran or hope I can fill the same spot with a rookie - not knowing if I’m going to be able to get a player or some players at that position? And the rookies are an unknown commodity, where veterans have shown at least some of what they can do in the pros.
It’s a fun offseason thing to dive into, but the approach is always what fascinates me.
Often, the folks drafting players are only tangentially listening to the coaching staff - this is not true in franchises where the coach has a huge voice, like the Patriots, the 49ers and others. But in the past? Not so true.
One such instance I remember vividly was when former 49ers GM Trent Baalke drafted DL Tank Carradine. Carradine was projected as a great 4-3 Defensive End which would be great, except the 49ers ran a 3-4 defense.
Without getting into the nuts and bolts, this meant that Carradine would have to switch positions. A defensive end plays in a three-point stance, where an outside linebacker, where Carradine was shifted to, starts in a standing position. It was a bad fit from the start, and Carradine never panned out. (He also had a torn ACL, which was another Baalke speciality, but we won’t focus on that.)
Teams need to draft players that fit what they want to do. Position coaches can change (and head coaches) but if you are drafting pure talent, looking at the coaches and saying, “You figure it out,” you’re already behind the 8-ball.
So, then it becomes a fun question … the Bills, for example, have struggled with a running game that extends past QB Josh Allen. Should they pay $5-6Mm a year for Miles Sanders, maybe $10MM a year for Saquon Barkley, or wait and draft a prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round (like James Cook and Devin Singletary, two young players who haven’t clicked yet)?
The Ravens have no real WR on the team. Do they attack this in free agency and pay a lot for (hold your breath) D.J. Chark, Jakoby Meyers, JuJu Smith-Shuster or Allen Lazard? Or wait for the draft? Are you paying for the past with a veteran or is there more fruit on the vine?
Baalke is now the GM of the Jaguars, and got absolutely lambasted last offseason for signing what seemed like overpriced contracts for guys like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and others. All of these guys contributed a ton, and Kirk now looks like a steal given the paucity of WR available in free agency this season. (Again, hold your breath and look at this list of available receivers.)
This can also vary by position. For whatever reasons, safeties are not valued that highly by the league - each year, good players go unsigned or are signed to what appear to be below market deals. To some degree, this is because there are so many options in the draft. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, are rarely available if they’re any good. (This year, with several at least capable/mid-tier QBs available, is an outlier.)
My beloved 49ers have 10 draft picks this year, but none until the end of the 3rd round. (It’s worth noting that they have a bunch of late compensatory 3rd round picks because they’ve been very successful and lost coaches, and those coaches and executives are people of color. This program feels very much a win-win for the league, encouraging teams to hire such folks, and reward teams who lose them in the same way they are rewarded when they lose players in free agency.) All of the draft chatter focuses on the first round, and that’s of course where the flash and sexiness happens. But teams are built out throughout the draft. The 49ers have Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffery, Arik Armstead, Trent Williams Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, all first and second round players. But they’re also strong because of guys like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. The entire draft matters and that’s what makes it so awesome.