NFL 2023: Temperature Check

Let's see how we're doing halfway through the season

We are basically at the mid-point of the regular NFL season, and my favorite team is on bye this week, so it feels right to take a pause and see what we (think we) know about the NFL thus far, with a focus of course on my San Francisco 49ers.

Just a few short weeks ago, the 49ers were coming off a nationally televised thrashing of the hated Cowboys to go to 5-0. Their offense AND defense were among the very best in the league and everything was humming. I started a post that was going to be about how fun it is to root for a truly great team, and then got nervous that I was tempting fate. That morphed into a post called “The Agita of Being a Sports Fan,” because it made me realize how hard it is to enjoy ANYTHING in sports if you’re truly invested.

And … yeah. Since then, the 49ers – who had been averaging over 30 pts/game through five weeks, have lost three straight, and oddly scored exactly 17 points in all three, losing to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals. At least two of those teams are actually pretty good, but it’s been very disheartening. The team has often just not looked really prepared and the defense has been seriously sloppy far too often.

I also worried about injuries and while Christian McCaffrey didn’t seem to get too badly hurt against Cleveland (he’s played almost 100% of the snaps in the last two games, which is actually too much and kind of an idiotic decision by Shanahan), both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel have missed the last two games, but will hopefully be back after this week’s bye.

I’d love to be able to point at that and say it’s why the team has started to slide, but despite only putting up 17 points each week, that’s not the real culprit. Yes, Brock Purdy has thrown some bad interceptions in those games, but again … the defense has been porous and somewhat lackadaisical. Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks, in his first year on the team, is under fire for weird coverages and ill-timed blitz calls, and those are fair but … it’s really just not clear what’s happening.

It’s worth recognizing that we are almost exactly a year removed from the team trading for McCaffrey, when the team was 3-4. A reminder! The team made it to the NFC Championship, and despite what Eagles fans (and Brock Purdy haters) will tell you, they had a real chance in that game to make it to the Super Bowl. The team is now 5-3 and clearly not out of ANYTHING, but the bye week couldn’t come at a better time as they truly need to figure out WHAT is happening and how to fix it.

My personal request – find a way to rotate in more running backs than just CMC. In theory, Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price and others can spell CMC and keep him fresher. In other spots., use guys like Drake Jackson, Ronnie Bell and other youngsters to keep the veterans fresh. To some degree, injuries are random – but this franchise simply can’t treat its most important assets as if they’re replaceable, because they simply aren’t.

This photo was meant to highlight Jackson’s promise. Now, he might be pointing at Chase Young to rotate in for him.

Um…so, yeah. The Niners just traded for Chase Young, the former top pick who is not a long-term answer for the Commanders. The defensive line is now so stacked - Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Drake Jackson, Clelin Ferrell, Randy Gregory, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw and OTHERS… if this doesn’t turn into an absolute wrecking crew, DC Wilks is going to hear it.

One nice thing here - the Niners traded a third round pick in 2024 for Young. They’ll also be receiving a third round compensatory pick for losing GM Ran Carthon to the Titans so this is largely free. Indeed, Washington is paying almost all of Young’s remaining salary this season. And if Young leaves in free agency, the team also gets a compensatory pick. Which makes this super weird for the Commanders, who would have gotten that compensatory pick if/when they lost Young to free agency. Wild.

Actually, Wilks is hearing it already. Here’s NFL analyst Emmanuel Acho:

One thing that has been clear in the three straight losses is that the defense is leaky as hell. And some of it is simply coaching - the team notably callled a zero blitz (this leaves guys in man coverage) at the end of the first half against the Vikings which meant Mooney Ward had no help against a long bomb to Jordan Addison. But it’s far from a lone instance - on Sunday against Cincy, they were consistently playing in zone coverage which just got picked apart by Joe Burrow. Bosa has had tons of pressures but very few sacks, and when you are pressuring a QB that often, it SHOULD force the QB into bad decisions. Instead, the last three weeks, quarterbacks have picked the team apart with the passing game.

What about the rest of the league? In a fun way, nobody is actually looking all that dominant.

The Chiefs managed to lose to the Broncos this week - yes, Russell Wilson is still the quarterback - which probably was due to Patrick Mahomes getting over a “cold” – which we’re just going to assume isn’t COVID, but the lack of clarity is odd, and he played, but didn’t play well. The Eagles barely beat the Commanders, and really every team has shown real flaws at some point this season.

The biggest takeaway I have from this is that the playoffs are going to be delightful. When there’s not a dominant team, it really opens the door for some new team to sneak in. I think teams like the Dolphins, Bengals, Lions and others could make a real run (the Bengals have, of course, done this in recent years but haven’t gotten to the big game) and its also cool that they all play REALLY fun styles of football. And yeah, more Mike McDaniel is always good in my book. (The recent news that they will be the in-season Hard Knocks team RULES. I’m sure at some point we’ll get TOO MUCH McDaniel because that’s the way everything works - looking at you, Kelce Brothers - but for now, I’m in.)

The Chiefs have a fairly boring offense, and the Bills are ravaged with injuries to their defense, and still don’t have a real running game (even after signing Leonard Fournette this week.) The Eagles are still solid of course, but their loss to the Jets shows they’re far from invincible and at some point, A.J. Brown has to come down to earth, right?

The NFL has a myriad of problems, but it’s absolutely my favorite sport despite those flaws. And I suspect the second half of this season is going to be great. As the kids say, let’s go.