NFL Preview, Part One
Let's start with the AFC, and predict the playoff teams.
It’s way, way too early to be doing this but … why not be reckless? That way, when I’m as inevitably as wrong as I would be if I waited until Labor Day, I have the excuse that I did this so early! Last year, I believe I predicted that the Ravens and Packers would meet in the Super Bowl, so that worked out perfectly.
(checks notes)
ANYWAY, let’s start with the AFC. First, let’s just predict what teams I think will make the playoffs and a brief mention on which teams I don’t have making them and why.
For the non-logo obsessives, these are the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnatti Bengals.
(Also, this is a mishmash of current and throwback logos - basically, I chose the one I like the most because this is my Substack. That’s how I roll.)
The obvious missing teams? The Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars are the ones that I suspect have higher odds to make the playoffs (and indeed, checking now, both the Chiefs and Chargers have higher odds than the Bengals or Colts do - not that odds are based on the team as much as how folks are betting and how oddsmakers hope to make money, but … still.)
The biggest issue for both the Chiefs and Chargers is that they are in the same division as the Broncos who were very, very good last year and addressed their biggest issue by trading for Jaylen Waddle, an oft-injured WR but one who when healthy is a game changer - and suddenly, their WR room looks insanely deep. Their offensive line is one of the best in the game and their defense is at worst a top-5 unit. Their QB is at worst a game manager and my guess is we haven’t seen his ceiling yet.
The Chargers made a massive change by upgrading their offensive coordinator from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel, and if their offensive line can stay healthy, this offensive should be full Berserker. I want them to make the playoffs but I think they’re just going to get beat up within their division against the Broncos and Chiefs as well as a very rough schedule elsewhere.
The Chiefs? They are low key a mess. Maybe not even low key. I don’t know why people are pretending this isn’t the case. Patrick Mahomes is coming back from his first major injury. His only good receiver, Rashee Rice, is as well, and had surgery - and then couldn’t rehab it on schedule because HE HAD TO GO TO PRISON. The team flat out ignored that position both in free agency and the draft (for all intents and purposes). They are DEAD LAST in available cap space - and yet, folks are outraged if you say that they might not be a contender this year. Well .. sorry, but I don’t see it.
The Bills making the playoffs seems straightforward despite a coaching change in the offseason, I think they got better in enough ways and still are strong where it matters.
But, of all the teams I put on this list, it’s odd that the one I feel the shakiest about is the one that made the Super Bowl last year, but the Patriots do feel like they have the weirdest offseason - whether it’s the Vrabel/Russini drama, or just the team maybe admitting their left tackle might not be able to play that position, trading for AJ Brown, etc. But, I do think they got better where it mattered - offensive line, receiver and they have a stud at QB and Vrabel IS a great coach. Also, I can’t quite get one story out of my head - after AJ Brown was traded to the Patriots, ESPN’s Maria Taylor went to his house and noticed a giant Patriots rug in his “man cave” in his Philadephia home. When asked where it came from, he said, “Amazon, a few years ago.”
Um, what?
So, I am keeping them here.
The Texans on this list should not be surprising to anyone. Right? Their defense is in my opinion the best in the league - the Broncos and Seahawks are right there, but the Texans are horrifying. Just so good everywhere. I think QB C.J. Stroud is better than his post-season, and I liked their trade for David Montgomery, so I think they’re good enough. I don’t buy the Jaguars enough and I thought their off-season was bizarre.
I do - oddly - buy into the Colts. Their season last year was so confusing, with a genuinely terrible trade for CB Sauce Gardner (giving up TWO 1st rounders for any position besides a QB or an EDGE rusher should probably be illegal), who got hurt almost immediately - but I do think Daniel Jones is oddly the right QB for this team and it won’t take that much for them to get into the playoffs here. This team is also in a big time pressure season for a lot of folks - the coach, the GM, and a few big name players might be on their way out afterwards if they do NOT succeed this year so I do think there’s a lot of pressure. Pressure makes diamonds, right? (It also can cause avalanches.)
Finally, I have the Ravens and Bengals making the playoffs. The Ravens made a coaching change that many of their fans had been hoping for (which many Giants fans should feel uncomfortable about, since John Harbaugh is now their coach). I think Jesse Minter should be additive and has brought over a fresh OC, which should unlock Lamar Jackson. This team is way too talented for what it’s done. The same is true for the Bengals, who finally actually added talent on defense.
So those are my playoff teams from the AFC. Any glaring mistakes here? Who do you think emerges from this group to go to the Super Bowl? That’s a choice I won’t make for some time (and who knows, I may change these picks before then…)
Perhaps Mike is wearing Koulats there? I might need a spell check.
Otherwise I kinda agree with all your takes which feels wrong.