NFL Preview, Part Two
Let's get to the NFC. Deep breaths. We can do this.
So, the prior post I predicted the AFC Playoff teams, so you probably saw this post coming - yep, we are predicting the NFC Playoff teams. I’m nothing if not a man of predictable posts. Of course, in between when I wrote that post (and scheduled it for a future publishing date), it was revealed that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was in a severe car accident and is still recovering from a concussion that prevents him from participating in team activities as the team joins for training camp.
I think everyone is glad, of course, that Shanahan is relatively okay and that the other driver is apparently fine - but also impressed that the team has found a new way to get injured. My goodness.
Let’s get into it.
So we went all old school logos here. Can we talk about the Bears logo? Can they PLEASE go back to this at some point, if only because it’s so fucking adorable?
For reference, this is the Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Lions, Bears and Panthers.
So let’s get to it right now - that’s right. I do not have my 49ers making the playoffs. I did - in fact, I’ve rewritten this post several times. But I just can’t be a realistic person and not face the reality that training camp JUST started and two of the top three receivers (Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall) are already hurt - Pearsall in a way that “the team is concerned about” and may require surgery. And after I wrote the LAST sentence and saved this draft, Pearsall had season-ending surgery and the team signed Deebo Samuel. It’s a lot, and I’m psyched about Deebo, but let’s just say that … I have concerns. The 49ers found magic beans last season and fought past all of this, and could well again do so … but I just can’t assume they can keep doing that. It’s just not realistic. I hope against hope that I’m wrong.
That said, in my first iteration I had the Rams missing the playoffs. Yes, the Rams. The Super Bowl favorite. Missing the playoffs outright. Why?
Such a good question. Here’s why.
Everyone keeps talking about how worried they are about my 49ers and their injury risk - a good point. But look at the Rams. Last year, QB Matthew Stafford won the MVP, but spent training camp getting work on his back in an Airstream trailer. He’s one bad hit - and he is among the toughest guys in the league, but a back is a back - away from Ty Simpson being behind center. That’s bad enough but can you name the third wideout on the Rams? I’m a pretty big NFL fan and I had no idea. Davante Adams scored a lot of TDs last year but he’s 33 years old. Puka Nacua spent the offseason in rehab after a myriad of alcohol related incidents that included assault and making racially insensitive remarks. He also plays in a reckless way that could lead to injury - meaning neither of these stud WR is guaranteed to play 17 games.
The answer to who WR3 is? It’s either people named Jordan Whittington or Konata Mumpfield. Who? Correct. I’m not sure either answer is going to fill any Rams fan with swells of confidence. But wait! They have so many good tight ends and run those creative packages that maybe it doesn’t matter. Yeah, okay … but none of those tight ends are really great receivers. Maybe that works. But also? You’d better hope NONE of your offensive linemen get hurt because also? You have no depth THERE either.
This is all to say that taking Ty Simpson with their first round pick still makes no sense and that I don’t understand how the team expects to make it through two consecutive seasons without a critical injury to any of their top skill position players. Because if they do, they’re boned. Big time. But, at the end of the day, I’ve wimped out and slotted them in.
The (nauseau) Super Bowl Champion Seahawks lost a few guys but there’s no reason they should not be right back in the playoffs. They are doing Hard Knocks this offseason, but I can’t imagine that would be such a distraction as to be a problem. I do wonder if Sam Darnold can keep this up or if he regresses back to being the lost puppy he spent most of his career at, and what the new Offensive Coordinator means for the team, but in general, they certainly seem like a playoff team.
The Cowboys and Eagles come out of the NFC East (the other two teams, I think, are gonna stink.) I don’t think either QB is particularly good - that’s right, I said it. I will never understand the slobbering over Dak Prescott, the man who has won two playoff games in his career, whose career statistics are similar to Mark Brunell and Joe Theismann, two capable quarterbacks but who don’t get talked about in nearly the same way. (I strenuously believe that if Prescott had spent his entire career in, say, Minnesota, nobody would think of him as anything more than an average QB.) But the Cowboys improved their defense and the offense is really good. Plus, Jerry Jones has already started talking loudly about how he’s ready to make a trade - which means he’s already deep in trade talks. Don’t be shocked if Maxx Crosby is a Cowboy sooner than later.
The Eagles have the opposite situation where they just need to get their offense back on track, and despite losing AJ Brown, I think they’ll do that. I don’t think Jalen Hurts is a real QB but he should be capable enough to do it.
The NFC South was such a mess last year that nobody had a winning record, so literally it’s anyone’s guess … but I think the Panthers did the most to improve here. I worry a lot more about the Falcons and Bucs, with the Saints as the other team I thought long about choosing.
Finally, in the NFC North, everyone’s favorite the Bears are here along with the Lions. I absolutely believe in the Bears, and I think while the defensive takeaways will absolutely regress (as will those late game comebacks), there’s plenty of room for Caleb Williams to keep growing as a quarterback. Somehow I am more optimistic about Caleb than most Bears fans I know. I think the other team is going to be a crapshoot. I had the Packers at first taking this spot but in the end, I think the Lions do it. They have a fourth place schedule, which is the tiebreaker for me. I simply don’t believe that Jordan Love is really going to make the right decision in crunch time while Jared Goff will. I think it’s going to be at least a month before Micah Parsons plays a down. Those are some other tie-breakers. And I can’t ever trust the Vikings with Lil Kyler Murray.
So, what did I get wildly wrong? What are your picks?
I kinda think yr right on. If every headline so far this training camp wasn't about another Niner injury, I'd think they make the WC too. But it's just non-stop and at some point the rub be hitting road.