Sliding NFL Doors: San Francisco 49ers
What if the 49ers never drafted Javon Kinlaw?
In this nascent series of NFL Sliding Doors, I’m trying to ask how things might have changed for a given franchise if one critical decision was different? For my 49ers, there are many other questions I could have — what if the Chiefs were called for a single holding penalty in 2020? Or in 2024? What if the 49ers had drafted Patrick Mahomes instead of Solomon Thomas?
Instead, I’m going to ask a question that should be somewhat easier to answer, and for that we will need to go back to the 2020 NFL Draft. In between their loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft, the team surprisingly traded DT Deforest Buckner to the Colts, receiving the 13th pick in the draft in return. It seemed to be the solution to needing to pay both Buckner and Arik Armstead, and the 49ers chose the cheaper player (who would have yielded much lower trade compensation) in Armstead.
This meant that the 49ers had two picks in the draft and the needs of the team were pretty obvious - Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver and, suddenly, Defensive Line. Tackle was due to Joe Staley signaling that he was going to retire - even though the team had spent a first rounder on Mike McGlinchey a few years prior that would leave a critical position unfilled. They did not solve it during free agency, but what us fans didn’t know is that they were working on a trade for OT Trent Williams from Washington.
The team actually traded back in the draft one spot with the Buccaneers who took OT Tristan Wirfs. (Wirfs has become one of the very best young tackles in the league.) Passing on Wirfs is more acceptable knowing that the team had McGlinchey and were acquiring Williams. Those two tackles were a great solution at the time, despite McGlinchey not truly ever approaching elite play.
With the 13th pick, the 49ers could have taken Wirfs. They could have also addressed receiver - Emmanuel Sanders left in free agency and rookies like Jerry Jeudy and Cee Dee Lamb were on the board. There were rumors of interest in Jeudy (who I assume would have been better in San Francisco than he was in Denver) but the team instead selected DT Javon Kinlaw as essentially a swap for the departed Buckner.
Kinlaw showed promise but spent basically half of his career in San Francisco injured and not playing, and left after his rookie contract expired. Draft misses happen, to literally every team. The process behind drafting Kinlaw was not misguided, but what might have happened if the team had acted differently?
What if instead they HAD taken Wirfs? Let’s assume they would have STILL traded for Trent Williams, leaving them with three offensive tackles. I want to be clear that I would have been very negative on this at the time because of the lack of a spot for the rookie to play - but there’s no doubt this would have been a great idea. Wirfs might have been able to play swing tackle and even maybe guard for a year and then let McGlinchey leave after four years instead of adding the more expensive fifth-year contract. The team would then (and now) have maybe the best tackle combination in the league or close to it. And that might have been the difference in the last Super Bowl.
The team absolutely could have taken Wirfs and opted not to. So … what if they’d addressed receiver at 13? Remember, the team used its own pick on WR Brandon Aiyuk, and they’ve actually said if Kinlaw was somehow not available at their pick, they would have taken Aiyuk - ahead of Jeudy and Lamb. I’m a massive Aiyuk fan and think he’s the best actual fit for the 49ers of those three, but let’s play along and see what if?
What if the team took CeeDee Lamb at 13?
The answer to this specifically is that Lamb would have been amazing in the Shanahan offense, at least as good as he’s been in Dallas. Slam dunk. But of course, that leaves the second first round pick as the team wouldn’t have used it on Aiyuk. And that’s where it looks … kind of dicey. There’s no offensive tackle talent available. Indeed, given that the team wouldn’t be looking for receiver, while a few interesting names like Patrick Queen and Xavier McKinney show up, the most interesting choice here would have been … QB Jordan Love, who went immediately after Aiyuk. The team was souring on QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and would spend three first round picks on Trey Lance the next draft. What if they drafted Love as Jimmy’s successor?
Let’s get super weird and run this out, then.
Because it gets so, so much weirder. The 49ers original pick in the 2021 Draft was traded to Miami, who then traded it to Dallas who used that pick on … Micah Parsons.
Imagine a team with both Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons.
Flash forward to 2022, and the team would have still had a first round pick - but could have traded back into the second round and taken (for example) OC Cam Jurgens and TE Trey McBride instead of on pass rusher Drake Jackson, who would not have a spot with Parsons on the team. In 2023, the team could have broken with tradition and taken a first round CB in Joey Porter, Jr.
The Butterfly Effect here could be potentially HUGE.
This is such obvious cherry-picking it’s embarassing, but … that’s crazy, right? Imagine a team that had the guys on the right in addition to Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner, Arik Armstead, Trent Williams, Mike McGlinchey and, of course, nothing here would have blocked the team from making the big trade for Christian McCaffrey so throw him on that squad as well.
OMG. Oh. My. God. This team might not have won a Super Bowl but…it could have. It could have won multiple Super Bowls!
I’d like to cheat and say that the team should have also drafted Brock Purdy at the end of the 2022 draft and then be absolutely set forever.
It’s just another reminder that this would have never happened because nobody knows how players are going to work out, nor do they always make the right choice.