So you say Trey Lance is a problem...?
A simple analysis to show this is all off-season hype
As we head into the week of the combine in Indianapolis, the 49ers scuttlebutt has been, as it always is, focused on the QB situation.
The odds are exceptionally high that Jimmy Garoppolo will be traded, perhaps as early as this week (though nothing can be official for several more weeks.) This has been in the works since last offseason, when the team sent three first round picks and a third rounder to the Miami Dolphins for the rights to draft Trey Lance. Lance was a huge athletic talent with less experience than many other QBs who have ever been drafted that high. Thus, the team stated that they would be happy to keep Jimmy all season long while Lance developed and got more practice reps in. They even toyed with the idea of rotating Lance in for a possession or two a game until realizing that it was clunky and (checks notes) has never really worked in the modern game.
Since the season has ended, we’ve heard a few different rumors - Tom Brady coming out of his recent retirement to join the 49ers, or the team keeping Jimmy for another season since he’s under contract … all because Lance simply isn’t ready. Really? Are we sure about that? Let’s look at his season briefly.
Lance did end up starting two games due to the inevitable Jimmy G injuries (one of the key reasons the team felt the need to upgrade), and played a lot of a third game coming in for Jimmy. He also had a rush or two in three other games, hence you’ll see the total games played in this chart is six, but we really want to focus on the three, as well as the opener against Detroit when he came in and threw a TD.
The two games with asterisks are those he started, and one should note they happened almost three months apart. In the first, against Arizona the play calls were …odd. He rushed the ball sixteen times (for 89 yards, not bad) and his passing was fairly mediocre. This would not be the most encouraging game. He also got hurt in that game (his throwing hand hit a helmet and he tore a tendon in his thumb). Kyle Shanahan has said that with the team reeling at that point, he was considering putting Lance in for good but that injury prevented him from doing so. And then, Jimmy led the team to the NFC Championship game.
But against the Texans, Lance really played well. Sure, the competition was worse, but there’s no denying that a 16/23 for 249 yards, 2TD, 1INT game is solid. He also ran for 31 yards, and averaged almost 11 yards per attempt. In just his second start that’s incredibly promising.
Anyone who watched it felt that way and the analysts across the football world cooed about what they saw.
So, I hate to quote Grant Cohn, he’s a hot take artist at the very least - but this last tweet takes us where we need to go so there we are.
Because regardless of how you want to nitpick those two games - and I think most folks felt VERY happy about what they saw from Lance (and what we heard from the team about him destroying them in practice, etc.) - the bigger question is this - compared to the other rookie QBs drafted last year (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Michael McCorkle Jones) how do you feel about Lance going into next season?
While their performances against the Texans shouldn’t be held on its own, look at the bottom of that list. Wilson, Lawrence and a bit higher up is Mac Jones. Against the same opponent, those QBs fared MUCH worse.
Trevor Lawrence was one of the best QB prospects in years. Despite a very up-and-down (mostly down) season, I won’t pretend that most teams and fans would still prefer Lawrence (and his league leading 17 interceptions) above Trey Lance. But the gap is probably closer than it was before last season, right? (Fun fact - Trevor Lawrence’s first name is not Trevor, it’s William. I think he chose wisely in terms of good football names.)
Zach Wilson was legitimately BAD last year. I can’t imagine even the most passionate Jets fans would not want to swap him for Lance. There were fans calling for Mike White and/or Joe Flacco to be the starter. That’s bad, folks. He did have a few decent games, and I wouldn’t count him out of being a good starter, but I’m taking Lance every day over Wilson. (Fun fact: Zach Wilson’s middle name is Kapono!)
How about Justin Fields? I was very high on Fields prospects and was troubled to see him land in Chicago, where QB prospects go to die. He did have one tremendous game against the Steelers after a great game against my 49ers (where he rushed for over 100 yards). So I’m feeling … decent about Fields. But given what I’ve seen thus far, and the situations they’re in, I’m still taking Lance over Fields. (Justin Fields middle name is Skyler. I’m not sure this is a fun fact.)
So, we are left with Michael McCorckle Jones, aka Mac Jones. It seems fairly clear that the 49ers were torn between Mac Jones and Trey Lance, and given Mac Jones’ season perhaps they have regrets. Certainly, he took his team to the playoffs, had a 22/13 TD/INT ratio and started virtually the entire season. He’s their QB of the future. But … in 2022 and beyond, is he the type of QB you’re truly excited about? Mac Jones was very efficient, with some rookie tendencies (took too many sacks, etc.) and seems like a very good fit for what Bill Belichick wants to do. Had the 49ers sat at the 12th pick last season and taken Jones, I would have been unhappy as I’m not a fan of his playing but it wouldn’t have been crazy (the Patriots took him three picks later) and I’m sure Shanahan would have done well with him. Why? Because his game is in the Kirk Cousins-Jimmy G vein of things. He’s not mobile, he’s efficient, and excels at the short to medium passing game. I’d personally say that his ceiling is someone like Cousins - which isn’t bad! But for Lance? His ceiling is in the Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen territory. He has a cannon for an arm, and is always a threat to run and take advantage of a gap in the defense. The playbook completely expands with Lance where it does not with Mac Jones. I’m for sure much more excited about Lance, though I do understand why Pats fans can still be keen on their boy McCorckle.
So Lance is at worst right in the middle of the pack with his peers, with one of the best offensive minds in the league as his head coach and after having a full season to be tutored by Jimmy G (who apparently was exceptional in that role). Anything can happen, of course, but there’s no real reason to believe ANY of the hype that the 49ers aren’t happy about his progress. The future is here, and it’s very, very bright.