The 2022 QB Shuffle: AFC
The offseason looks to have a lot of QB movement Let's make some foolish predictions.
The NFL 2021-22 season is almost into the postseason, and shortly thereafter, we could be headed into one of the more dynamic, exciting off-seasons in a long while. The reason? A much higher amount of teams are going to be looking for a new quarterback, the most important position in sports. Whether their current starter stinks or wants out of town, there seems like there might be more turnover than normal by a good margin.
Or will there be? (strokes imaginary beard) Let’s see. Time to break out the crystal ball (while, apparently, wearing a suit and tie.)
Because this will undoubtedly get lengthy, we are breaking this down into the AFC and NFC, with the AFC the focus of this post.
I’ll try to look at each team, and if they are poised to make a change, what route I think they’ll go. Should be pretty fun to see in a few short months how preposterously wrong I was…
AFC East
Buffalo Bills - Thrilled with Josh Allen. Next.
Miami Dolphins - Note: The below was written before a) Brian Flores was surprisingly fired and b) the team leaked that it was Flores who was all about Deshaun Watson. So, this may well be all for naught. On the other hand … it seems like Tua Tagovailoa isn’t the apple of coach Brian Flores’ eye, or the ownership in Miami. The big move is to trade for Deshaun Watson, which I hope costs less than three first round picks or more. Watson instantly solves their problems and with Jaylon Waddle is a foundational passing offense. But Watson’s baggage is still very real and disturbing, and Miami might have to pray things work out and make the trade … or go elsewhere.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: I still wonder why Tua can’t be the answer. He’s got chemistry with Waddle and is still young AND cheap.
WHAT THEY’LL DO: I think Miami does trade for Watson, and probably pays a price I think is exorbitant and too risky.
New England Patriots - They for sure have their guy with Mac Jones. Next.
New York Jets - They might not be thrilled with rookie Zach Wilson, but even if they want to go Full Josh Rosen (and there’s no Kyler Murray out there), they’re keeping things as is next season.
AFC South
Houston Texans - They’ll be trading Deshaun Watson as noted. But he wasn’t their starter this year, Davis Mills was. And he didn’t light it up, but he certainly didn’t stink, either. I’m not a draft expert by any means, but my understanding is that there aren’t nearly the class that last years was (and which also had mixed results, of which Mills was at the top.)
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: The Texans have a paucity of draft picks, mostly as the result of a regrettable trade or three. They should get a good amount back with the Watson trade, but unless someone truly stands out to them, they should invest in (checks notes) like every part of the entire team, all of which is built with spit, sticks and tape. Davis and vet Tyrod Taylor can hold the fort down another year.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: Flush with picks, they’ll almost certainly fall in love with a draft prospect that folks are now projecting in the late 1st, or 2nd or 3rd round but goes in the top half of the first. (This isn’t a slight on Houston, but rather the inevitable NFL trend with QBs as draft picks.)
Indianapolis Colts - Do the Colts adore Carson Wentz? I know coach Frank Reich does. (Hey, I watched … one episode of the in-season Hard Knocks!) Assuming the Colts do roll into the playoffs, I think they like him enough to keep him for next year, especially given that they’ll be giving up 2022’s first round pick to do so. Note: They did NOT roll into the playoffs, but the reality is they’re stuck with Wentz for another year.
Jacksonville Jaguars - They have Trevor Lawrence. Now find him a coach who isn’t intent on ruining his career.
Tennessee Titans - They’re good with Ryan Tannehill. (So much that he has a $57,000,000 dead cap next season.) But after 2022, his contract is basically optional. They may want to draft a prospect to take over down the road.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - They have Lamar Jackson entering his last year under contract. It’s unimaginable to me that they’ll not sign him to a very large contract.
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow. Move along.
Cleveland Browns - And here we go. Baker Mayfield has never shown that he’s a franchise QB, and his last game of this season may literally have been the worst of his career. He’s having surgery like, today, and it’s hard to look at him as “the answer.” That said, he’s ALSO, by far, the best Cleveland Browns QB in almost thirty years. That’s .. quite a conundrum.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: Baker is still under contract for next year at a relatively (for a starting QB) affordable deal of $18MM, all dead cap money. Keep him and keep Case Keenum, and take a prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round who has a chance to develop. Then, deal with it in 2023.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: I think they do the above. It’s easy to be dissatisfied with Baker, until you think logically about who else you can get.
Pittsburgh Steelers - It’s finally time to replace Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers seem woefully unprepared. Names of established QB options like Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo have been mentioned, as has Russell Wilson. But I think at least two of those guys aren’t leaving their teams, and the others just don’t feel like logical fits. (Who? Tune into the NFC Preview!)
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: The Steelers never used to draft anyone from Alabama. No one in the public truly seems to know why, but that was broken with a boom when they took Najee Harris in the first. I think that means they wouldn’t be allergic to trading for Tua Tagovailoa. I don’t know why, but I just see Mike Tomlin and his staff getting the very best out of Tua, and him paired with Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Pat Friermuth sounds delightful.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: Could they trade for Jimmy G? It’s not out of the question. But I don’t see it. I see a more prudent choice to be to sign a free agent like Marcus Mariota, keep the “He’s definitely not the answer” in Mason Rudolph and draft a replacement.
AFC West
Denver Broncos - They seem to be in quite the pickle. Neither Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater is their guy, and they have a plethora of young, talented offensive weapons on cheap(ish) contracts. Is Aaron Rodgers coming to town? That sounds awesome, but I don’t see it happening. Also, there is likely a new coach coming to town, which adds a fairly big wrinkle.
WHAT THEY SHOULD AND WILL DO: Trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s got one year left on his contract in 2022, is a very solid passer who absolutely can unlock the offense. Denver and San Francisco have a long history of trading and working with each other, especially since Adam Peters came over to SF from the Denver front office. This just makes sense.
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders - Does the team - and new coach - stick with Derek Carr? He’s signed for 2022 but with zero cap hit, so they could move along with no financial hit - but also no solution for 2022. Again, a new coach is heading into town, and in a tumultuous season he’s been a good to very good player and a stabilizing force.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: Sign Carr to a long-term deal, and replace the lost offensive pieces in the offseason.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: It’s the Raiders, and they’re in Vegas now, and I feel like a new coach and potential new GM might want to make a splash. I think they try and make a play for Russell Wilson, and fail (to the long-term benefit of the Raiders). And then end up sticking with Carr and signing him to a long-term deal.
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert.
If you’re keeping score, the QBs I project actually leaving their teams above are Deshaun Watson, Jimmy G, backup Marcus Mariota and maybe, in my dreams, Tua Tagovailova. That’s not nearly as sexy as I promised in the lead-in to this. But just wait … in the NFC, there are guys like Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, not to mention Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones. (On second thought, don’t mention them.) There’s sure to be more shakeup in the NFC, right? Tune in and find out.