The 2022 QB Shuffle: NFC
Let's finish our QB shuffle discussion and find out where the pieces fall.
It seems like there’s a lot of change ahead at the most important position in sports, the NFL quarterback. And indeed, that’s the scuttlebutt. (What a word, scuttlebutt. Let’s all promise to use it more.) But in looking at the AFC, my lightly informed predictions suggested very little actual change. Does that mean there won’t be much? Well, the sexy names are in the NFC and I do in fact think a few big names are moving this year. So, let’s dive in.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - They have Dak Prescott and are perfectly set.
New York Giants - The team has, inexplicably, announced that Daniel Jones (and coach Joe Judge) will be back next year, though they’re likely to hire a new GM who may have other thoughts. (Guess what? I wrote this a week or two ago. Joe Judge has since been fired. Daniel Jones’ fate is still a question mark.) The team will likely have two first round picks inside the top-10, so they have draft capital…but will they use it?
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: I actually don’t have a problem keeping Jones. He will cost the Giants $4MM in actual cash next year, and count twice that much against the cap whether they have him or not. But they should take a long look at the draft to see if anyone catches their eye. Take the plunge and use 2022 to figure out if it’s Jones or if you have a great asset behind him.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: The Giants are of course in the country’s biggest media market, and a new GM may want to make a splash. I’m sure they’ll be on the phone with Green Bay, Seattle and elsewhere to try and make a big trade, but I don’t see it happening. Sadly for Giants fans, I see them rolling forward with “Danny Dimes” and kicking the problem ahead another year.
Philadelphia Eagles - When I first started thinking about this, my feeling was that fantasy football aside, Jalen Hurts wasn’t the guy. And just a few short weeks later, the Eagles are comfortably in the playoffs. Statistically, Hurts isn’t setting records but he has one of the best contracts in the league behind center. The Eagles should be good here.
Washington Football Team: Shortly, apparently, the team will have a new name. And next season, they should have a new quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick was never a long-term answer, but he didn’t make it out of Week 1 without a season ending injury. Taylor Heinicke remains signed through next year, but is he a real answer at starter? I don’t think so.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: They have the 11th overall pick next season. That’s a good place to throw a dart at a QB prospect, right?
WHAT THEY WILL DO: God, I hate this team. They seemingly had a world-class defense and an improving offense and somehow were just uninspired and awful this year. Also, the team itself is consistently on the wrong side of … everything. I think that means they try and trade for Deshaun Watson, or take on absurd salary cap issues with Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - Some folks are calling for the head of Matt Ryan. Those folks seem to not care that the Falcons have one of the worst cap situations in the league and Ryan has over $40,000,000 in dead cap money next season, and $55,000,000 in total. They’re sticking with Matty Ice.
Carolina Panthers - Now we’re talking. Sam Darnold wasn’t the answer, to nobody’s shock except coach Matt Rhule. And Cam Newton is long gone, a shell of his former self. Rhule should be back next season but I suspect he’s on borrowed time, and with rumors that the team is shopping Christian McCaffrey, it sounds like they might be prepared to blow it all up. This REEKS of a desperate move, like trying to woo Russell Wilson to (one of) the state(s) where he went to college.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: Draft a QB - maybe local product Sam Howell? - and develop him with Darnold (who is on the hook for $18MM next season) and someone else as a backup. It’s possible they’ll hit the panic button, but I would like to think they can address this thoughtfully.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: I think the draft is the most likely outcome, but if Deshaun Watson doesn’t find his way to Miami, and that’s seemingly less likely than it was before Brian Flores got fired … don’t discount him making a return to the Carolinas and joining the Panthers. Again, their owner wants a BIG move and this could be it.
New Orleans Saints - Whoo boy. We know Sean Payton worships Taysom Hill, to the point that he’s signed with relative decent dead cap money for the next few seasons. But he’s also clearly, demonstrably, not the answer at QB. With Michael Thomas presumably coming back next season, this is an offense that can return to form … but with who under center? Jameis Winston is a free agent though the team holds an option, and Winston actually looked good and managed to not cough up the football too much before tearing his ACL. But is he the answer? Of note, as always, New Orleans is in salary cap HELL yet again. This is spicy stuff.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: Because of that tear, I think they could re-sign Jameis on the cheap, and basically return the same hodgepodge solution at QB.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: Close your eyes and remember that the Saints don’t care about the salary cap. There’s no problem you can’t kick into the future, apparently. Now envision offensive genius coach Sean Payton, with a healthy Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas and … Russell Wilson behind center. Wilson has a full no-trade clause, so he’s in control of where he goes, and I think he’s smart enough to want to go somewhere he can win in short order. The team that needs help that is closest to winning, and also in a pretty awesome city, is New Orleans. It’s worth noting that his wife Ciara is from nearby Texas…folks, I’m calling it. Mr. UNLIMITED goes to Nawlinz.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - In most cases, having a QB as old as Tom Brady would call for desperate measures. But yeah, they’re good.
NFC North
Chicago Bears - The team will hopefully be rid of coach Matt Nagy and GM Ryan Pace, but they should have their answer at QB in Justin Fields. Hopefully they hire someone who can truly develop him.
Detroit Lions - The trade for Jared Goff was not because the Lions think he’s the long-term answer, it was for the draft picks the Rams surrendered. Goff has $30,000,000 in dead cap for 2022. He’s not going anywhere. BUT, that also doesn’t discount them drafting a quality prospect. The Lions also have a tempting amount of cap space heading into the season - this is typically where folks spend like drunken sailors and make mistakes that cost them for years.
WHAT THEY SHOULD AND WILL DO: The Lions own pick is too high in the first round for any QB prospect, and should instead take one of the great pass rushing prospects. If they like someone later, they’ll have the Rams pick which they could use to move up or draft someone. There’s unlikely to be a good option in free agency (there rarely is), so the draft is the real way to solve for this.
Green Bay Packers - And we’ve arrived at the Drama Hub of the Midwest. Aaron Rodgers, aka Throw Rogan, and his immunized-but-not-vaccinated, man-bun sporting and Ayn Rand reading self made a big stink last off-season, holding out and eventually agreeing with the team that they would make him available this offseason. It was vague and probably done mostly for Rodgers ego. The team notably drafted Jordan Love in the first round a few years ago and have got nothing out of him. Additionally, when he was forced to start this year because of Rodgers getting COVID-19, he looked fairly pathetic. There are a lot of whispers that Rodgers will be on his way to Denver, or New York, or even Pittsburgh … and I just don’t see it.
WHAT THEY SHOULD - AND WILL - DO: I was all aboard the “get Rodgers out” train, but I think the team sees Jordan Love, sees a Super Bowl window, and is ready to just make Aaron happy. What’s more, I think Aaron realizes how good he’s got it, and praised coach Matt LaFleur and GM Brian Gutekunst without being prompted to do so. Aaron is an idiot, but he’s not a moron. He’s staying in Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings - Man, the NFC North is wild. Coach Mike Zimmer is likely toast, but for all the rumors about Kirk Cousins finally leaving, again I must refer folks to the salary cap. Cousins contract stinks, with $45,000,000 in dead cap money still on the books. Who is desperate enough to take that on for a guy who is very capable but not special? Cousins probably cost the team a playoff berth by refusing to get vaccinated (his defenders would argue that the Vikings weren’t beating Green Bay anyway, and while that’s true, I hardly think Cousins is a team first guy on this front), and has been exactly as “good-but-not-great” as he’s always been. (Why Kyle Shanahan adores him remains one of the sports greatest mysteries.) Cousins is as good of an answer as the Vikings can get in the short run and costs a ton. He’s staying put.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - Yeah, Kyler Murray will do. (What’s a trickier question is if coach Kliff Kingsbury and his idiotically spelled first name is the long term answer, but I’d be shocked if this changed given the teams success this year.)
Los Angeles Rams - Similarly, Matthew Stafford is staying put and rightfully so.
Seattle Seahawks - As noted, I have Russell Wilson leaving town for New Orleans. I know the team has said he’s staying, but they’ve also said the same about Pete Carroll, and honestly that doesn’t seem like it’s going to stay. Where does this leave the team? They don’t have a first round pick, traded as part of the deal for Jamal Adams, last seen getting absolutely torched in coverage. This is a team in rapid decline, and I couldn’t be happier about it.
WHAT THEY SHOULD DO: Once Russell leaves, it will be hard to ignore the fact that this team has a few good players surrounded by many, many average or bad ones. Could they make a trade for someone like Tyler Huntley from the Ravens, who looks like he could be the real deal? Sure - but why would the Ravens give up such a cheap asset? Instead, I think they come back with Geno Smith and sip some vino with Geno, and try to find someone in the 2023 draft.
WHAT THEY WILL DO: Seattle isn’t used to losing under this regime, but they’re also not set up to make a big move, financially or with draft capital. I can’t actually imagine that they’ll confidently walk into 2022 with Geno, so maybe they’re the ones who sign Marcus Mariota. More likely, they realize how dire this situation is and fire Pete Carroll in order to keep Russ. It won’t make their season any better, but it will at least answer the question of who is behind center.
San Francisco 49ers - My team! And for the first time in awhile, there shouldn’t be any question. One way or the other, Jimmy Garoppolo is out the door and I won’t have to STILL try and remember how to spell his last name. The future is Trey Lance, and the future is now.
So perhaps the chatter - nay, the scuttlebutt - is wrong. By my estimate, the guys truly changing teams are Deshaun Watson, Tua, Jimmy G and Russell Wilson (and not if the Seahawks realize how bad it is there) and … yeah, that’s it. Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield … they’re all staying put by my estimation.
It’s easy to say that it’s time to make a change, until you realize what that change looks like.