The Confusing Strategy of Deebo
Or ... a lack thereof?
It seems, as hard as it is to believe, but the 49ers and Deebo Samuel are potentially on the verge of a breakup. This truly stinks as a 49ers fan, as Deebo is an absolute delight and terror as a player, someone who showed flashes in his rookie season before a breakout in his third year last season. The 49ers won a lot of games because of Deebo and how perfectly he fit what coach Kyle Shanahan wanted to do.
The 49ers know his importance. They have tried to initiate discussions with Deebo (sorry, calling him “Samuel” would be more correct, but … he’s Deebo) on a long-term deal. Deebo is heading into the fourth and last year of his rookie contract, and typically teams - including the 49ers - try to sign players they want back before that last season actually starts.
In order to get a deal done before training camp, you have to talk about what each side is looking for. Both Shanahan and GM John Lynch have publicly stated they are willing to do what it takes to sign Deebo to a long-term deal.
But Deebo, apparently, isn’t coming to the table. And it’s not about money.
The 49ers could sign him at any point - long term deals typically are back loaded so this isn’t a function of Jimmy Garoppolo still being on the roster. Deebo just doesn’t want to re-sign here.
Why? Rapoport above says it’s about “how he’s used.” That’s coming straight from his agent, almost assuredly. And today, Adam Schefter repeated a rumor I’d heard which is that Deebo doesn’t want to be in California, but closer to South Carolina, where he was born, raised and went to college.
While I get that (I mean, sort of - there’s no world in which I “get” liking South Carolina more than California, but everyone beats to his own drum), letting this all become public knowledge is … really weird. It’s where I stop understanding what Deebo is doing. (It’s also worth noting that Deebo posted, then deleted, a tweet mocking this entire concept. So, who the heck knows.)
Perhaps he does, indeed, want to be the highest paid non-QB in the league. That’s not going to happen but maybe it really IS about money. There are teams willing to overpay for a key piece, and Deebo at his best is indeed elite. The 49ers also might not be willing to pay him more than any other WR in the league while another team could be tempted.
But … that’s because of “how he’s used.” The fact that Deebo is a threat out of the backfield as a RB, in addition to his receiving skills all over the field, is what makes him perfect for Shanahan. That’s the value he brings to the 49ers - which means that’s what they’ll expect back in a trade. How much is he worth as a standard receiver? I don’t know - but it’s less than he brings as a total offensive weapon.
And now Deebo is a) saying he wants to go where an offense DOESN’T utilize him the same way and b) prefers to sign a long-term deal with a team that plays closer to South Carolina.
That massively limits his options, and in turn does the same for the 49ers (who don’t seem to want to trade him at all, for what it’s worth).
Deebo has zero formal agency in all of this - he’s under contract for 2022 (if he sits out, that contract similarly rolls another year) and the team could franchise him for 2023 fairly easily. This is less than ideal for both sides, of course. It’s worth pointing out that I’m not really a fan of this labor agreement, it gives owners way too much control which is yucky in a lot of ways. But that’s the landscape and the 49ers aren’t going to just roll over here.
That said, Deebo will have some sort of say where he goes in terms of agreeing to sign a long-term deal elsewhere, here are the teams I think could overpay for Deebo given their current situation
New York Jets
Atlanta
Carolina
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Miami would have been an incredibly logical place had they not just traded for Tyreek Hill. I think Baltimore and New England are good fits - but those front offices are unlikely to pay a fair price to the 49ers. I also don’t think they’d pay Deebo top price, and they’re certainly not cities I think of as being close to home. If I’m understanding what Deebo wants, I don’t think they wouldn’t be high on his list.
Then, there’s the Jets - a team nobody wants to go to. Sure, it’s closer to home, but that’s a big step down for Deebo in terms of a quality team. Maybe he believes in Zach Wilson, and the OC there is a former 49ers passing game coach, so there’s familiarity. As for Indianapolis, that just feels weird to me. In no way does that city feel like the South, and while they have a good setup to win now, how long is Matt Ryan playing? And…is he still any good? The other thing with the Colts is they really don’t overpay. They also don’t have as much draft capital - their top two picks are a 2nd and 3rd from Washington. I don’t think that’s cutting it.Three teams sort of emerge as likely destinations, and I gotta tell you, Deebo … none of them are great.
The Carolina Panthers could make an offer (though, they have no 2nd or 3rd round picks this year) and pair him with a rookie QB or Sam Darnold. If the Panthers lose a lot this year, it’s a complete turnover at coach and GM. That’s not great - and again, I don’t think the Panthers have the draft capital to make a deal.
The Atlanta Falcons need help at WR. Their best WR is suspended for at least a year, and their best WR is Cordarrelle Patterson who plays a lot like … Deebo Samuel. That’s an offense that would specifically want to use Deebo in a way he apparently doesn’t want to play. Oh, and they traded away their Hall of Fame QB, so the most important position in sports is unsolved for in the long run.
That brings us to the hot mess of the Jacksonville Jaguars. They potentially have an answer at Head Coach and QB. Sure, they just spent a truly preposterous amount of money on Christian Kirk at WR but after that the cupboard is bare. Want to help Trevor Lawrence succeed? Deebo will help a LOT.
If he gets traded, it seems more likely that one of these Southeast teams are the leaders here. (I haven’t even mentioned the Houston Texans because if somehow Deebo forces a trade there, may god have mercy on his soul.)
Someone needs to sit down with Deebo and understand what’s really important to him. If winning isn’t the priority, and it’s more about usage and perhaps money (again, the 49ers are willing to pay - but perhaps someone wants to pay more?) then Deebo might be happier elsewhere. I guess it’s important to remember that everyone has their own priorities (and certainly, I don’t really understand the guys who are already earning generational wealth who force their way to a new team to earn even more generational wealth. Everyone is motivated by different things.)
It would be awesome if Deebo - who is not a particularly public personality (which is why I really don’t see him wanting to be in New York) - would say something.
I think the most likely scenario is that the 49ers and Deebo mend fences (certainly, there has to be a number out there that will do that), but even if they are going to trade him, I’m not sure there’s a real sense of urgency. Sure, they COULD get a 2022 draft pick or two for him and draft his replacement but it’s hard to see this all coming together so quickly. Perhaps that’s a naive statement, but the timing here is pretty awkward. (Also, let the record show that A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin and potentially D.K. Metcalf are all in the same spot, aren’t quite demanding trades but aren’t showing up for workouts … and at least two of them have the same agent as Deebo. So, this could all be a really bad negotiating strategy.)
The NFL has no offseason. Stay tuned.