The Death Knell of the PGA, and perhaps professional golf.

Dramatic? Heck, yeah.

There’s no simple way to say what went down this week in professional golf, except to say that shit went DOWN. Let’s break down the two big stories, and see what I think they mean for the game of golf.

First, the USGA and R&A announced plans for a rollback of the golf ball. The goal here is to reduce distance on most shots by 5% which doesn’t sound like a lot (because it isn’t) but will have a substantial impact on what we’ve grown to think of golf in the last 20 years or so. The critical thing here is that these changes - if, honestly, they ever come to pass - won’t happen in professional golf until 2028, and won’t be implemented in balls sold to the public until two years later. The changes to equipment could and surely will negate some of this, and honestly who knows where we will be.

The outraged response to this has been nothing short of hilarious in my opinion. Players - almost all who get money from ball manufacturers - have largely treated this as if the sky has fallen. Keegan Bradley called this a “monstrous” decision.

Relax, Keegan. It’s gonna be okay.

The problem this is trying to solve is that most golf courses - not just those played on tour - are not built for people driving the golf ball 325 yards or more routinely. I belong to a club that will turn 100 years old next year, and I can’t hit the ball that far because I’m old and infirm, but younger members say they keep their driver in the bag often because otherwise every hole feels like a driver/wedge. And watching professional golfers hit a driver and 9-iron into a par-5 on tour is not as awesome as folks think, especially when it’s routinely the case.

The funny part is that I keep hearing people say we shouldn’t do this - we should solve this problem by … and then insert some preposterous ideas. Grow the grass longer! Plant more trees! Make golfers use fewer clubs (most of these guys do, as noted - they’re not hitting 5 and 6 irons almost ever).

This could have more easily been solved by addressing this 20 years ago, and also creating caps on golf clubs themselves - but that would have impacted more OEMs and even more golfers and influencers would have the vapors. This is a modest change and again, is years away. By then, professional golf might be dead.

Why might it be dead? Because of the other, bigger story of the week. That is Jon Rahm leaving the PGA Tour to join LIV. Rumors are he is getting paid $500MM among other incentives. It’s likely that this will open up the floodgates for other top golfers to do the same.

Some casual golf fans might be confused as in June, the “framework agreement” between the PGA and LIV suggested they’d merged, or that LIV was going away. In theory, the leagues still have a few weeks to work out a deal, but this seems to absolutely torpedo that, if there even was a chance left for that.

But what this framework agreement did was take the taint off of the Saudi money. Because this was Jon Rahm just a little over a year ago:

Think about it. If you were a top golfer like Rahm who (among other reasons, in theory) didn’t go to LIV because of the Saudi money … what do you do when the PGA says it’s actively courting that same funding? It means no matter what you do, that Saudi money is coming your way. Assuming you don’t want to quit professional golf, you’re going to be taking money from the PIF one way or the other. So…why not take as much as you possibly can, up front? While I’m disappointed in Rahm, this really falls on the slobbering incompetence of PGA Commissioner Jay Monahan.

Monahan, when faced with the question about what, exactly, he DOES here.

It’s easy - and appropriate - to blame Monahan, who has whiffed at every opportunity - but the reality is he’s facing competition who is spending irrationally. The $500,000,000 check that LIV is writing to Jon Rahm is more than the ENTIRE prize money for every single event in the PGA in 2023. And Rahm is just one of at least 48 golfers they’ve paid (though none as much as him). The biggest obstacle is likely that the PGA Tour insists on being a non-profit and therefore cannot truly compete financially with LIV, but who can?

So, at this point, we have to ask what happens from here. Even if nobody follows Rahm - which seems hard to believe - it’s clear that LIV has (along with a bunch of absolute mules) some of the best golfers in the world. Rahm and Brooks Koepka won two of the four majors last year. (There are rumors that another 2023 major winner is in talks as well, though it’s unclear if it’s Brian Harman or Wyndham Clark.)

LIV is currently relegated to the CW, which means almost nobody sees these guys playing golf on LIV. I’m not sure how this lasts. What I do know is that my interest in non-major events has waned over this whole saga and Rahm (one of my favorite golfers) leaving makes me even less keen to tune in. Is it going to be great to watch Kapalua or Riviera to see [insert average build-a-golfer here, the name doesn’t really matter] compete? Sure, there are guys for NOW still on tour that I like, but even if Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth and others stay on tour, will their presumed wins mean as much with the increased lack of competition? Not for me.

And what is the endgame with LIV? To replace the PGA Tour as the main professional golf tour, with TV rights and such, and burn the PGAT to the ground? Perhaps, though it’s hard to see a payback period for LIV that is even somewhat reasonable. While I get that their resources are essentially infinite, they aren’t actually endless and at some point it’s not crazy to think they’ll want to get their finances in order.

I have a hard time seeing a future - meaning in five plus years, not immediately - where the two leagues are coexisting. Something fundamental and structural has to change. And - just like every change related to this has been - the changes will NOT be to make the product better for fans. For me, THIS is the end of professional golf in a way that matters. The majors and the Ryder Cup should survive, but who plays in them is likely very much an open question.

In the meantime, we will have to endure the absolute unbridled glee from some of my least favorite people in golf - Phil Mickelson, Greg Norman, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed and others. And they’re right to be happy - LIV seems to have won.

If not a great point, a winning point. For now, anyway.

It’s not the biggest loss in the world, but it is a real bummer for fans of professional golf. (And for those saying this will help force Saudi Arabia to work on its moral failings, I applaud your sunny side up mentality, but I think the intent here is literally the exact opposite.)

Is it kismet that this happened on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor? Is that an awful thing to compare this to? (Yes. Yes, it is. Apologies.) But it does signal a crippling blow for the PGA Tour. And they’ve shown absolutely no ability to fight back. The fact that the day this has been leaked, the Golf Channel is still hyper focused on the danger of the rollback speaks so much to how out of tune folks are with what the future portends.

This is very much a bad day for the PGA Tour and in turn, professional golf.