The NFL Draft Is Over. Now what?
Also, how did I do predicting the draft? Look away. LOOK AWAY!
Last week, the spectacle of the NFL Draft happened and like a shocking amount of NFL fans, I watched a great deal of it. I don’t really know why it’s compelling to me, it’s essentially putting a job fair on live television, but here we are.
That said, I’m enough of a dork that I put together my own mock draft because there’s nothing funnier than a guy who barely watches college football pretending he knows squat about the players who play college football.
Making a Mockery of the Mock Drafts
Last week, I posted about what I generally thought the 49ers were going to do in the draft. Spoiler alert - I actually wrote that post maybe two weeks ago and scheduled it, and then promptly forgot about it. So much that I did two mock drafts - one for the 49ers and one for the first round overall - thinking I’d make a post out of it.
It’s ironic that the photo I chose for that post was of Shedeur Sanders, who became the story of the draft for not only NOT going in the top few picks but not going all until the 5th round. Many smarter people have written about this and why it happened, what it means, etc. I won’t add to that discussion, because I can’t add much.
What I thought was just as interesting was what happened with another “top” QB prospect, Texas QB Quinn Ewers. Ewers was going to lose his starter spot in Texas due to the presence of Arch Manning, but he had two options - one, enter the NFL draft, or two, take some NIL money and go somewhere else to both finish up college and potentially improve his draft stock. Financially, Ewers made a terrible choice. Drafted by the Dolphins in the seventh round, dangerously close to going undrafted, Ewers can make about $4,000,000 if he plays out his contract. He would have gotten that much for one season via the transfer portal, like Carson Beck did by leaving Georgia for Miami.
But let’s talk more about the overall draft, and if we’re going to do that, it’s time to face the music. Here’s my draft, with the reminder that I gave myself one point for each of the following: the player went in the exact spot, the player went to the same team, and the player was drafted in the first round. This means a possible 90 points.
Spoiler alert: I scored 39/90. If you give extra credit for the team taking another player at the same position, that goes up to 44/90. Honestly, while this is very bad, it’s also not too shabby given how little I know about all of this.
As for my 49ers? Well, I had two mocks, one with them taking Derrick Harmon, the other Mykel Williams. They actually did take Williams, so I feel good about that. (Perhaps better left unsaid - that was the only player of the 21 other picks in the two mocks I did that they took.) Positionally, I think I got it fairly right, however. They prioritized a DT in the second round, taking Alfred Williams and picked up another DT in the fourth round with CJ West. They also got a good running back prospect, another wideout who could help with depth while Brandon Aiyuk heals up, and a few guys who are likely to be great on special teams including a wideout in the 7th who is a punt return specialist. The 49ers really, really bolstered their defense and special teams in the draft which was the most desperate need, so this is great news for a return to form. (Also of note - they invited a kicker - indeed, the Lou Groza winner (for the best kicker in college) - to try out for the team. THIS is how you get kickers (and punters). Watch out, Mad Eye Moody. Competition is coming.
Where my mock - and almost every mock - missed was thinking that the 49ers would understand that the other side of the line, the offensive line, needed more help as well. With the exception of a 7th round pick of a guard (Conner Colby, from Iowa), the team basically ignored it. My expectation is that they hope to sign some free agents soon - as of Monday of this week, such signings don’t impact the compensatory pick equation, and other teams will maybe shed some veterans now that they’ve drafted a replacement … but, really? The team is about to pay Brock Purdy somewhere around $55MM a season, and they are likely to be doing so with guys named Ben Bartch and Jake Brendel starting. That’s a bit terrifying to me, and probably to Purdy.
Aside from that absolute gap, I really did like the draft - while some players were taken ahead of the “consensus” value, the 49ers always take guys they like. At least they aren’t trading up to take them, but guys like LB Nick Martin and CB Upton Stout were taken well ahead of their consensus value, and maybe taking a tackle or guard in those slots would have still allowed them to get them later. But if they turn into real players, I don’t really care. (GM John Lynch did say the team tried to trade up - apparently to 8 with Carolina - to take Williams there because they assumed he’d get taken by either the Saints or Bears - and thankfully the Panthers passed on that offer.)
And that’s the reality - the success rate of ANY of these guys is so low. Even first round picks have about a 50% hit rate, and it gets lower as the draft progresses. While I was hoping for the team to draft guys like Charles Grant, Marcus Mbow and Miles Frazier, the odds are quite high that in a few years I won’t have a clue who these guys are because they won’t be starting for the teams that did eventually grab them.
In the meantime, we now have a few months where the only grist for the mill will be the contract status of Purdy, Fred Warner and George Kittle, all of which will hopefully be resolved soon. A quiet(er) off-season would be most delightful.