The NFL Draft Machine Is So Weird

Nerds like me fixate on mock drafts, which largely exist to justify bad decisions

As I think I’ve mentioned here before, I get fairly interested in the NFL Draft. When folks like Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, Lance Zierlein and others release their new, shiny mock draft, folks like me pounce (largely scrolling down to see who our own team picks, but also to look and see where big name players land). There are countless podcasts dedicated to this, websites and businesses that focus on almost nothing else - and yes, this is a huge testament to the power of the NFL, that people can be this obsessive about the DRAFTING of players from college.

To his credit, Kiper is one of the guys who built this business. He still has this much hair, but it’s a lot greyer and has a lot more product in it.

So, again, folks get paid good money to predict how the draft will unfurl. But here’s where it gets … weird. Because regular folks like myself - that is, guys who don’t really watch college football, and only get interested in the draft when the NFL season is over - interpret mock drafts wrong.

They aren’t intended as a reflection of value, of what the pundit THINKS is the best QB prospect, the best edge rusher, etc. They reflect what he (or she, though aside from Liz Loza I unfortunately can’t think of too many female draft pundits) is hearing teams are likely to do. And through the years, NFL teams are more and more likely to leak their interest in a player when it suits their interest. (They are equally likely to leak their feigned interest in a player if they think it will generate a trade, but that’s another story altogether.)

But let’s play this out. And just for fun, let’s use a real life example this year with QB Kenny Pickett. As most folks following the draft know by now, this is a pretty weak year for QB prospects. It doesn’t mean that none of them will succeed in the year, but they simply have more obvious flaws than, say, the five QBs drafted in the first round last year.

Pickett was recruited to play at Temple by then head coach Matt Rhule, who is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers, who hold the 6th pick in the draft and have a massive gap at QB. Last offseason they traded for Sam Darnold, a once top QB prospect who didn’t succeed on the Jets (which hardly makes him unique) but who similarly had issues in Carolina, at one point being benched for the re-signed Cam Newton who is long past his prime.

So, the Panthers need a QB and there seems to be a logical fit with Pickett, who is also the most “pro ready” QB in the draft. That is, folks think he’s the most likely to be able to start games this year and contribute on the field, while other prospects are likely to struggle in an NFL offense right away.

One reason for this is also, in the long run, a drawback - Pickett started 49 games at Pitt, and will be 24 as an NFL rookie. As a comp, 49ers QB Trey Lance will be entering his fourth NFL season by the time he’s 24. But Matt Rhule doesn’t really care about that. He cares about winning NOW, because if he doesn’t, he’s likely to get fired by or before the end of the NFL season.

So what happens? Rhule, or someone else in the Carolina organization, whispers to folks like Kiper and Zierlein that they are high on Pickett, and they accordingly slot Pickett into the 6th draft pick. Simultaneously, they note that THEY don’t really think he’s worth that high of a draft pick, but that’s what they’re hearing.

Let’s flash forward a few years, and let me preface this with an apology to Mr. Pickett and his family. Let’s assume that the PRE-DRAFT analysis, before all this manipulation happened, is more spot on. And before last season, Pickett was considered a late round pick. He had a great 2021 season and now, he’s rising. This also happened with Joe Burrow who also has very small hands, like Pickett, so some are trying to make that comparison. But that’s really a tough sell. I’ve seen many say he’s like Derek Carr with a weaker arm. Hey, Carr is a legit QB and you could do much worse. But I’ve also see some compare him to Mason Rudolph, who in no way, shape or form is a starting QB in the league.

Mason Rudolph has a solid QB name but he’s not a starting QB.

So, let’s project him as someone who is a starting QB but not above the “Dalton Line” - that is, the Panthers in a few years still haven’t truly solved their QB problem. (The Dalton Line was coined by late NFL writer and all around excellent human Chris Wesseling. RIP.)

What happens then? Well, in my case, I look back and see - why was Pickett drafted so high? And I see a ton of mock drafts projecting him right there. And I shrug and think, “Well…nobody really knows anything, the draft is a gamble…” and so forth.

But that’s just the draft machine at work. Because before all the spin and polish happened, Pickett wasn’t considered a legit QB prospect. An NFL team talked itself into him, and convinced draft pundits to reflect this in their mock drafts. That doesn’t turn Pickett into a better player, it just helps the pick get a bit more traction and less slings and arrows sent their way when they make it. In essence, this is circular reasoning at its core.

I listened to a podcast recently where Zierlein and Dane Brugler were talking about their mock drafts, and in so many cases they said, “I don’t think this guy is worth taking this high, but this is what I’m hearing” and the other guy would agree. I mean, what are we DOING here?

Because it’s also worth pointing out that the very best mock drafts get like MAYBE 8-10 picks right in the first round and rarely many after that. So we’ve developed a weird cottage industry that mostly exists to protect NFL coaches and GMs, but where fans get COMPLETELY invested in it. The draft now moves from city to city, and it will be in Las Vegas this year.

It’s really, really weird.

And yeah, I’ll be tuned in on April 28 (even though my team, the 49ers, doesn’t even HAVE a first round pick. I’m part of the problem…)