As noted, the NFL Draft begins on Thursday and as always, I’ve gotten a bit deep in the sauce and actually think I have an idea about what SHOULD happen. Invariably, my favorite team (the 49ers, obvy) will take someone I am not anticipating (I believe the last player they drafted I expected was Nick Bosa, which was a fairly easy pick to predict, and before that? I … can’t remember.) They’ll rate some players higher than “consensus” and pass on players the draft community adores, etc.
In order to not go crazy, I’m here to predict some outcomes I’ll likely be fairly upset about. That way, if they happen at least I’ll have it on record that I predicted it. Also, I’ll be upset because apparently I’ve convinced myself I know better how to fix the team than folks who are literally paid millions of dollars to focus on nothing but that every second of every day. In reverse order of what I expect to happen then, here are some thoughts:
Brandon Aiyuk is traded. I truly don’t see this happening for some fairly obvious reasons – one, Aiyuk has truly blossomed here and has fantastic chemistry with QB Brock Purdy. He’s an incredible blocker, route runner and has great hands. Two, they don’t really have dire salary cap problems especially as the cap continues to increase every season. Three, and maybe most importantly, what could they get in return? They’d want at least a first round pick and with one of their two first round picks they would be expected to pick a WR – this would mirror what they did with DeForest Buckner and Javon Kinlaw. (Ironically, that same year is when they ALSO drafted Aiyuk in the first round as well.) The problem? For one, I’m quite sure the team regrets the swap of Buckner for Kinlaw, who is no longer on the team. Two, the receiver class is quite deep – but there’s three guys who are clear studs who will all go in the top-10. There’s zero reason for a team to trade the 49ers one of those top-10 picks for Aiyuk, who will need a massive contract extension. Rookie NFL contracts are the cheat code of the league. But also, the Niners would have very little chance to find a receiver in the rest of the draft who could project out to be Aiyuk. Every other receiver has promise but if the upside is that they COULD turn into someone like Aiyuk, it makes a lot more sense to stick with the actual guy himself. Money plays a factor everywhere, but I truly will be shocked – and very disappointed – if the team trades Aiyuk. It’s much more likely that after the 2024 season they look to see about releasing or trading Deebo Samuel, something I’m also not psyched about but at least understand a bit better. That said, if they do trade Aiyuk, I expect they’d need at least a first round draft pick and depending on where it is in the draft, maybe more.
The Niners will not take an offensive lineman in the first round. It is one of the deepest drafts for offensive linemen, especially tackles – and that aligns well with the 49ers needs who need to ready themselves for Trent Williams retirement. The best offensive tackles are almost always top draft picks, a spot the 49ers thankfully rarely get to draft. I’ve argued that they should trade up to ensure getting someone like Amarius Mims or Tyler Guyton, but regardless grab someone, and use at least one other top pick on an interior lineman. So I assume that instead, the team will do one of two things – draft a Defensive Lineman/Edge in the first (rumors about about guys like Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson or Johnny Newton) OR trade out of the first round entirely for someone trying to come back in for one of those tackles or more likely, a QB like Michael Penix Jr or Bo Nix. If the team can do this and still come out with good prospects at OT, OG and CB, I’ll sleep well on Saturday night. (Actually, no I won’t, as I’ll be waking up at 4:00AM to go to the airport, but that’s not really relevant.)
The team will overdraft a “low priority” position. This crew seems to do this almost every year, whether it’s Jake Moody, Mitch Wishnowsky, any number of third round running backs who get cut a year later … it’s almost a hallmark of the team. You’d think there’s a lesson to be learned here but Moody and Wish are both pretty solid at their team and the team doesn’t seem to believe in ‘draft capital’ in the same way I and others do. And hey, the team has had quite a lot of success (just shy of the ultimate prize) so I probably shouldn’t judge too harshly. To me, the most likely way this would happen here is if they take a receiver – tight end or wideout – before the end of Friday (Day 2, Round 3). I think they SHOULD grab a receiver (not necessarily Jerry Rice’s son or Christian McCaffrey’s brother) and honestly round 3 wouldn’t be terrible – but prior to that would do so at the expense of true talent at CB and the OL, both of which are more pressing needs.
The 49ers are one of a handful of teams who should look at 2024 as a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl – obviously they’ve been pretty close twice in the last few years and as far as I can tell, there’s no rule dictating that only Patrick Mahomes gets to win Super Bowls. But they largely lost the most recent one due to a collapse in blocking on the offensive line and did very little to address that in free agency. It would border on malfeasance if they leave the draft without some potential answers on the offensive line and secondary.