Where should the 49ers look in the draft?
What do they need? Where are they drafting?
After trading for Christian McCaffrey and then trading away Jeff Wilson for a 5th rounder, the 49ers 2023 draft will look something like this:
No Pick (Trey Lance)
No Pick (Christian McCaffrey)
No Pick (Christian McCaffrey), but TWO compensatory picks (2)
No Pick (Christian McCaffrey)
Original Draft Pick, plus Dolphins pick, plus compensatory pick (3)
Original Draft Pick (1)
Original Draft Pick, plus Denver pick, plus compensatory pick (3)
That’s nine picks, which includes two compensatory picks according to this article. Those are projected to be an additional 5th and 7th round pick.
This really means no Day 1 pick, two Day 2 picks (at the very end) and then six picks on Day 3. IF Defensive Coordinator DeMeco Ryans is poached to be a head coach elsewhere, that would yield an additional third round pick both in 2023 and 2024.
With all that, where should the 49ers focus their efforts?
First, where are there potential free agent losses? The top names on the team that are becoming free agents are listed here:
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
Jimmie Ward, FS/CB
Emmanuel Mosely, CB
Mike McGlinchey, OT
Robbie Gould, PK
Those are the top salaries, but other names that provide great depth include Samson Ebukam, Kevin Givens, Daniel Brunksill, Jake Brendel, Jason Verrett and Tashaun Gipson. Some of those guys are starting right now, so they are critical.
I’m assuming Mosely is re-signed - he unfortunately tore his ACL earlier this season. The league has basically shown it values Jimmie Ward much lower than the 49ers do, so I assume he’ll also be back. It would be crazy to re-sign the aging Gould when the team could - and should - use a late round pick or a free agency signing to find a capable replacement, but I wouldn’t put it past the team to spend recklessly at kicker yet again.
While there’s NEVER a guarantee that we won’t be back in the Jimmy sweepstakes, the rise of Brock Purdy, the fact that the team is still invested in Trey Lance and the fact that Garoppolo will undoubtedly get a solid offer from a QB hungry team means he’ll start elsewhere in 2023. Best wishes to a solid dude and an underrated quarterback.
To me, the biggest question mark is McGlinchey. The first round pick in 2018, McGlinchey has been a star at run blocking and very inconsistent at pass blocking. This year he’s largely been solid, and apparently doing so while playing with two broken ribs. Offensive tackle is a marquee position, and while the team did exercise the fifth year option on him, they could have signed him to a long-term contract awhile ago and have not. That’s telling. There are some tasty names on the projected free agent list (including McGlinchey) at OT, but a lot of teams smartly don’t let those guys go. And the third round is NOT a historically ripe place for OT, which again is a premium position. McGlinchey himself was drafted 9th overall in the 2018 Draft.
My guess is the team re-signs him unless they get woefully outbid for his services. If that happens, the 49ers are kind of … boned. Again, the draft won’t provide that many options. The team has provided OT depth by drafting guard prospects they hope can play tackle, with mixed results from Jaylon Brown, Colton McKivitz (also a free agent) and swing offensive lineman Daniel Brunskill (ALSO a free agent). This is easily the biggest question going into the offseason. It does seem - possibly - like the team has found replacement guards with Aaron Banks and Spencer Buford and that’s remarkably great news.
I think if the team can find a way to sign or draft a stud at center, it will. Shanahan prioritizes that position and while pending FA Jake Brendel has more than held his own, I suspect Shanahan and Lynch are looking more for a Weston Richburg/Alex Mack level player.
My guess is that the team uses the rest of its draft picks on securing depth in the following areas:
Defensive Line. It’s always a focus, and guys like Samson Ebukam, Kevin Givens, Kerry Hyder, Jordan Willis and Charles Omenihu are ALL free agents. I think some of them will come back to the fold, but it wouldn’t be the 49ers if they didn’t spend a draft pick on their defensive line, and honestly you can never have enough resources.
Cornerback. With Mooney Ward aboard, and in theory re-signing Emmanuel Mosely, the team also has Ambry Thomas, Demo Lenoir and Samuel Womack, Jr. along with Jason Verrett, the latter who will be a free agent again as well. (I think, sadly, Verrett is done after suffering another injury, but he’s worth noting here.) I think the team would be wise to continually draft at least one or two cornerbacks every year and would be shocked if they don’t do that in 2023.
Charvarius “Mooney” Ward was another great signing that was considered a bit odd at the time. A lock-down cornerback? Yeah, that’s good. Safety: The emergence of Tuafonga Hufanga at SS has been one of the best aspects of this season, and he’s been paired most often with either Jimmie Ward or Tashaun Gipson. Both of them are free agents, as is Tarvarious Moore who is the other safety on the team. Whether it’s re-signing one or more of these guys or the draft, this is an obvious 2023 decision point.
Hufaaaaaaaaanga! What a great step forward he’s taken this year.
If the 49ers walk out of the draft and free agency with some answers on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the secondary, I think the team will have completed the assignment, so to speak.
In reading that last paragraph, it actually sounds somewhat dire. But in reality, the team has remarkable depth. Across the league, offensive lines are the most porous and unstable - the fact that the team has found a lot of success with the current interior line is not something most people predicted to start the season. The teams defensive line is likely the deepest in the league, and the secondary is a place where later round picks are often true talents. The real risk here is at right tackle (and that assumes Trent Williams continues to come back and play at a crazy high level).
This season is far from over, and I’m as optimistic as possible when the team I root for is on it’s 3rd string quarterback. But looking forward, I’m optimistic too. Let’s go do the damn thing.