Who was the last "random" major winner in golf?
And furthermore, why does it not happen much anymore?
Golf, like tennis, has many regular events but a few “major” championships that the casual golf fan will tune into, even when they’re not just skipping but often fully unaware of weekly events. These are The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open and The Open (often called The British Open by us heathen Americans).
In recent years, the winners of these events have been name brand players, almost exclusively. Even when there have been surprising winners, its mostly been older stars who found a little extra something late in their career like Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA Championship, or Tiger Woods winning yet another Masters in 2019.
When Shane Lowry won The Open at Royal Portrush in 2019, many casual golf fans might not have known who he was, but he was the 33rd ranked golfer in the world, and had been in the top-20 several years prior. He was hardly a shock to the system.
2019 also featured the U.S. Open being won at Pebble Beach by Gary Woodland, but he was 25th in the world going into that event. Looking over the list of winners, you might think Danny Willett came out of nowhere to win The Masters in 2016 - and within that event, he sort of did as Jordan Spieth melted down in historic fashion to let Willett come and take it, but he was 12th in the world going into Augusta. (This actually blows my mind, but facts are facts.)
The real outliers (as dictated by OWGR ranking going into the event) for major winners in the Tiger Era (and since) appear to be these:
Jimmy Walker, 2016 PGA Championship. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 48
Keegan Bradley, 2013 PGA Championship. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 108
Y.E. Yang, 2009 PGA Championship. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 110
Lucas Glover, 2009 U.S. Open, OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 71
Michael Campbell, 2005 U.S. Open, OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 80
Todd Hamilton, 2004 Open, OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 56
Shaun Micheel, 2003 PGA Championship. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 169
Ben Curtis, 2003 Open. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 396
Rich Beem, 2002 PGA Championship. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 73
Paul Lawrie, 1999 Open. OWGR Rating pre-tournament: 158
There’s a few natural takeaways from all this data. One is that there aren’t any truly shocking Masters winners, which is fairly predictable since it’s an invitation only event for those who have won on tour or won the Masters recently or otherwise have a top-50 OWGR rating.
The other is that from 1999-2005, this wasn’t an altogether crazy outcome. Sure, Lawrie won at Carnoustie due to the historic collapse of Jean Van de Velde, but he was similarly ranked at 151st in the world. Statistically, either of them were just as much of an outlier winner.
Ben Curtis - who I swear I couldn’t pick out of a lineup - was by far the lowest ranked guy to win a major, perhaps ever. (OWGR hasn’t been around that long, so who can truly say?) This would be akin to Marc Warren winning the US Open this year. Who is Marc Warren? Exactly. (He’s this guy, who plays on the DP World Tour.)
One of the fun things about sport is that in THEORY, anyone can have a truly great tournament or game or whatever and win. But in golf, you can have the best week of your life and not win because someone had a better one. And I think that’s what’s happening here - the quality of golfers is SO much better, largely due to the money flowing into the sport after Tiger Woods, that the competition is just too fierce. With apologies to Mr. Warren and his family, it just seems almost impossible for a true dark horse to appear and win out of nowhere.
And that’s a shame.