Why won't people believe in Brock Purdy?

There are a few reasons, and not all of them are idiotic...but they're wrong

As most football fans know, Brock Purdy is the starting QB for the San Francisco 49ers. Most fans ALSO know that in the 2022 NFL draft, he was literally the very last player chosen, which earned him the dubious nickname of “Mr. Irrelevant.” He worked his way into the starting lineup by first earning a roster spot (the team cut a veteran owed $2,000,000 which is more than twice what Purdy earns per season) and then a myriad of injuries at the QB position during the 2022 season.

But as soon as he took over, 49er fans realized a few things:

1. This kid was legit good and

2. Coach Kyle Shanahan was calling more aggressive plays for him than he ever had for Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance (the latter in only limited action, of course).

Purdy took the team to the NFC Championship game where he quickly got such a serious elbow injury that not only did it doom the 49ers (who certainly otherwise would have been a tough opponent for the Eagles), there was concern he wouldn’t be able to play right away - or maybe at all - in the 2023 season. Folks talked about him like a wonder, as if it was all smoke and mirrors, the doings of QB whisperer Shanahan, etc.

It doesn’t help that Purdy isn’t (by NFL quarterback standards) a physical specimen, that is arm strength isn’t elite, etc. While I don’t think he looks like a youth pastor, he doesn’t NOT look like a youth pastor.

The offseason was full of national journalists laughing about how the 49es, a Super Bowl contender, HAD NO IDEA who was starting at QB. This, despite the fact that Shanahan very loudly said as long as Purdy was healthy, he was the guy.

The team has now played 10 games, and sit at 7-3. Those three losses were Purdy’s worst games as a pro, but it should be noted he drove the team down field to attempt a VERY makable field goal, which kicker Jake Moody missed. The Vikings game was also quite close and winnable, and the Bengals game was lost quickly because of a terrible defensive performance.

But yet, folks don’t believe. The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz, who is clearly just doing a bit now, ranks Purdy 18th - behind not only retired Tom Brady but two collegiate prospects. But also behind guys like Derek Carr. Others insist that “anyone” could do well on this team with offensive weapons like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey. Of course, they don’t hurt. But the offensive line is ranked 28th in the league. And Purdy isn’t just doing okay, he’s doing GREAT. Last week, he had just the third perfect passer rating game in the storied history of the 49ers.

He is 1st in completion percentage, quarterback rating and QBR — and, wait, this sums it up faster:

Even if I wanted to actually embed a link to this toxic site, the anti-Semite running it won’t let Substack do that. Alas, a screenshot.

There’s simply no way to fake this, and if you’re watching (which many who sniff at him clearly are not) it’s clear he’s incredible at decision making, he’s nimble in the pocket and he throws an excellent ball. He’s a great quarterback.

So why won’t people admit it?

I think there are a few reasons.

1. Draft Pedigree. He was, of course, one pick away from not even being drafted. Despite a great career at Iowa State, that’s not exactly a pro game passing school of wizardry. I do find it amusing that the same people who think he can’t be good because he was drafted so low will say (correctly) that Trey Lance - drafted 3rd overall - can’t be good because he’s not good. Apparently, the QB Whisperer can’t whisper to certain players.

2. Physical Stature. It’s worth noting that Purdy is 6’1”, 220 lbs. That’s no shrinking violet, but he’s not an absolute unit like a Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, etc. He also just LOOKS like a really young kid, not a destroyer of defenses.

   

   That shouldn’t be a disqualifying reason, but I think it often is.

3. Athleticism Bias. This is his athleticism chart from MockDraftable. The closer you are to the center, the lower you rate against other draft prospects. It’s clear that Purdy was only physically elite at short distance runs (which isn’t useless as a quarterback!)

   

   Its worth noting this is comparable to guys like Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, two players took with the very first picks in their respective drafts. But then look at the same chart for Chargers QB Justin Herbert.

   

   I mean, I know if this was my ONLY data points, I know I’d take the guy with the bottom chart, right? But what this doesn’t measure is how they play the position. Herbert constantly makes poor throws - yes, he plays on a cursed team with injured players at the most critical positions almost as a rule, but he doesn’t raise his team above it. The fact that he’s strong hasn’t prevented him from getting hurt, and it doesn’t matter if you can chuck it 65 yards in the air if it’s not accurate. (I should note here that I am a huge fan of Herbert. I’m just not sure how great he is at playing the position.)

   It is clear that physical athleticism is only one part of the position, but folks are intoxicated by it. Murray is by every measure a tremendous athlete, by the way, but look at HIS graph. This doesn’t seem to shake anyone. And that’s because folks watched Murray at Oklahoma win in spite of his stature and measurables. (He also didn’t participate in all the tests like Purdy does, so one can only wonder what his other metrics would be like.) How many of the folks judging Purdy poorly watched a lot of Iowa State games? I think we know the answer.

   

   Purdy reportedly was off-the-charts good in a test of reflexes and decision making, skills that are obvious on the field. But you can’t see it just by looking at him, or at data like the above. Is he an ELITE quarterback? He’s certainly playing like one and very smart people like Kurt Warner, Shanahan, his entire team and other analysts see it. The folks who don’t simply don’t WANT to.

   

4. Small Sample Size. This isn’t unfair - as noted, he’s only really played for one season. But in that time, he took the team to the NFCC (haters will say the team took him, but they … probably didn’t watch the games), which is farther than Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence or other QBs folks “OBVIOUSLY” rank ahead of Purdy have ever taken their teams. Wins are not a QB stat, but it’s also hard to ignore how well oiled this team is with him behind center and he’s still learning how to play in the NFL. It is indeed a small sample size, but if he hadn’t had his elbow torn off last season, he well might have been playing for a Super Bowl. He still could be this season. What then?

   It’s worth comparing him to some other QBs who took talented teams deep in the playoffs. The two easiest are Garoppolo himself as well as Jared Goff with the Rams. But both of these guys were players whose coaches realized were standing in the way of a great team, whose ceilings prevented them from being the difference maker. It’s why the Niners drafted Trey Lance, and it’s why the Rams not only traded Goff for Matthew Stafford, but sent draft picks as well to compensate for the downgrade the Lions apparently were getting. Goff is leading those Lions on a great run himself this year, so a current comparison is probably not unfair. But as a Ram, he was clearly inferior to what Purdy is doing now.

   This is all just to say, keep ignoring Brock if you insist. But at some point, you might have to admit you got this one wrong.